美军撤离 选举在即 忧虑又生

THE outlook remains far rosier than two years ago. Violence has dropped to the level of a few months after the American invasion in 2003. Voters are likely to turn out in large numbers for a general election scheduled for January 16th. So far, the main electoral alliances are being drawn from across the sectarian spectrum. It has yet to be determined whether Iraq will be Islamist, federal or centralised in character and constitution. But most politicians seem sincere in insisting that this will be decided by parliament and not by force. The insurgents are too weak to overthrow the newly emerging order. They control no swathes of Iraq, as they once did. There are some dangerous areas, but the Iraqi forces can go more or less where they please.

比起两年前，伊拉克的前景依旧光明。暴力程度已经下降，同2003年美军入侵后几个月内的水平基本持平。大多数选民也打算参加计划在1月16日举行的大选。迄今为止，主要的选举联盟已经放下了党派之争而进行结盟。从国体和宪法上，伊拉克究竟是会成为一个穆斯林国家，联邦国家或是中央集权国家还有待选民们的决定。不过看来大部分政客都坚持这将由国会而非军队决定。这些反动势力还未强大到可以推翻新政府。他们现在已经不像当初那样掌控着伊拉克的大局。虽然仍有些危险区域，不过伊拉克军队已经基本可以随心所欲的进出任何地方。

Even so, the continuing presence of 120,000 American soldiers still underpins security, though they stopped patrolling the streets in July. But Barack Obama this week reassured Iraq’s prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, who was visiting Washington, that all American combat troops would be out by the end of next August and that all troops would have left by the end of 2011.

尽管如此，仍有12万名驻扎美军在保卫当地的安全，虽然他们已于7月停止了街道巡逻。本周伊拉克总理努里马利基在华盛顿进行访问时，奥巴马再次向他保证，美军将于明年8月底开始撤离，全部军队将于2011年底完全撤离。

Many American officers are worried, however, that the relative lull will not last, especially as the election campaign hots up. Insurgents, some of them tied to al-Qaeda, have carried out some hideous suicide-bomb atrocities recently. They may increase their efforts immediately before, during and after the poll. “There is no question al-Qaeda is working against a successful election,” says General Raymond Odierno, America’s senior commander. “By launching attacks, they hope to undermine people’s faith in the institutions of the government of Iraq.”

然而，很多美国官员却担心暂时的和平不会持续很久，特别是选举正在如火如荼的举行。一些反动分子，部分来自基地组织，最近已经制造了数次可怕的自杀性炸弹袭击。他们可能会在选举前，选举期间和选举后对选举进行直接的干预。“很明显，基地组织正在试图破坏这次选举的成功举行”，美军指挥官雷蒙德-奥德耶诺少将表示，“他们希望通过制造袭击来破坏人们对伊拉克政府机构的信任”。

They may single out the State of Law alliance led by Mr Maliki, who claims the credit for Iraq’s improved security. If the insurgents manage to create strife between the Muslim sects, Shias and Sunnis may be provoked into ditching non-sectarian alliances and falling back on sectarian loyalties. The continuing failure of Iraq’s parliament to agree to a new electoral law that would allow voters to plump for individual candidates rather than party lists is another cause of tension, especially since the Kurds and Arabs cannot agree on how the election should be held in the disputed city and province of Kirkuk.

反动势力可能会针对由马利基领导的法律联盟委员会，他们声称将会改善伊拉克的安全状况。如果反动分子挑起了穆斯林什叶派和逊尼派之间的纷争，可能会分裂无宗派联盟，使联盟成员重新忠于各自的信仰。自从在争议中心的省会城市基尔库克的库尔德人和阿拉伯人无法在选举具体进行上达成共识后，伊拉克国会对新选举法的再次否决使得形势更加紧张，该选举法规定选民可以给社会个人而非党派列出的候选人投票。

In any event, the post-electoral phase is bound to be fraught. None of the competing alliances is likely to win an outright majority, so lengthy and ill-tempered horse-trading is likely to ensue, perhaps—judged on past form—for as long as three months. Despite an extensive monitoring system that has been set up and staffed by foreigners and Iraqis, allegations of fraud are likely to worsen matters.

无论如何，选举结束之后必定困难重重。任何竞选团体都不会赢得压倒性的胜利，因此漫长且让人焦躁的讨价还价仍会继续进行，很可能——就以往的经验而言——将持续三个月。尽管已经建立了一个由外国人和伊拉克人组成的广泛的监管机构，而对该机构徇私舞弊的控诉很可能会使情况变的更糟。

General Odierno hopes to speed up the withdrawal of troops once the poll is over, with 70,000 soldiers to be sent home by the end of August. Will the remaining 50,000 be able to hold the ring if fighting increases or breaks out between groups now edgily at peace with each other?

奥德耶诺少将希望在选举结束后可以加快美军撤离的进程，在8月底将会有7万名美军回到美国。如果派别纷争不断升级和爆发，留守的5万美军是否能控制住局面？

Peace is shakiest along the “trigger line” that runs between the Kurdish and Sunni Arab areas in the north-east. Insurgents are trying to provoke both sides. The Iraqi army has claimed some success in containing them in and around Mosul, the country’s bloodiest city. But the most urgent need is to reconcile Arabs and Kurds. The Americans have been trying to build confidence by setting up joint Arab-Kurdish military patrols along the border between the two groups. But the initiative has stalled.

由于东北库尔德和逊尼阿拉伯地区之间存在的一触即发的“导火线”，和平局势也因此不堪一击。反动分子正在试图挑拨离间。伊拉克军队宣称在摩苏尔及其周边已经成功控制了部分反动分子，摩苏尔是全国发生流血事件最频繁的城市。然而当务之急是缓和阿拉伯人同库尔德人的关系。美国人曾经尝试通过在两个部落边界处建立阿拉伯-库尔德联合的军事巡逻队使双方建立对彼此的信心。但是初步行动已经被推迟。

Another worrying area is Anbar province, to the west of Baghdad. Once an insurgent hotbed, it has been fairly calm for the past two years. But in the past fortnight it has got bloodier again. On October 17th insurgents blew up a big bridge on the main road to Syria and Jordan.

另一个让人忧心的地区是巴格达西部的安巴尔省。这里曾经是反动势力的温床，不过近两年里这里的反动活动已经基本平息。但是在过去的14天里，这里重新变得血流成河。10月17号，反动分子炸毁了位于叙利亚通往约旦主干道上的一座主要桥梁。

In 2007 the Americans persuaded Anbar’s Sunni tribes to set up a self-defence movement known as the Awakening and turn against al-Qaeda. “The deals we made, are they sticking?” asks a senior American officer nervously. So far, 23,000 members of the Awakening have joined the Iraqi security forces; another 15,000 have been absorbed into the civil service. They do not always get paid on time. But so far the arrangement has held up.

在2007年，美国曾说服安巴尔的一些逊尼部落建立一个反基地组织的自卫性防御项目，即人们所熟知的“觉醒”计划。“计划是制定了，但是落实了吗？”美国的一位高层官员焦急的询问道。迄今为止，觉醒计划中有2万3千名成员已经加入了伊拉克的安全保卫部队；另外的1万5千名成员则成为了公务员。他们的工资常常不能按时发放。但是到目前为止这个计划还是起到了一定效果的。

In general, the Iraqi security forces, under American tutelage, are improving. But it is unclear how sincerely Iraq’s new officer class is promoting reconciliation and democracy. An American officer has noted that “the military culture of the Baathist-Soviet model under Saddam Hussein remains entrenched and will not change.”

总而言之，伊拉克的安保部队在美国的监管下已经有所改善。但是伊拉克新的军官阶层推广和平和民主的诚意却尚不明确。一位美国官员表示“萨达姆-侯赛因统治时期的社会党苏联式军事文化依旧阻碍着事态的进展，并且这种情况还会继续。”