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碳减排:值得花大力气

来源:其他行业英语 时间:2018-12-12 点击:

THIS newspaper has long advocated a carbon tax as the best way to deal with a warming climate. This month we asked Cambridge Econometrics, an economic-modelling firm, to assess the impact of a carbon tax on the economy. To keep things simple and allow for gradual adjustment, we proposed that it should raise revenues equal to 1% of GDP by 2020, and that other policies with similar objectives (fuel duty, subsidies for renewable energy, Britain’s membership of the European emissions-trading scheme—the ETS—and so forth) would be abolished or cut back. 更多信息请访问:http://www.24en.com/

本刊长期以来一直主张征收碳排放税是应对气候变暖的最佳方式。本月我们邀请经济建模公司剑桥计量(Cambridge Econometrics)估算碳排放征税对经济可能产生的冲击。简单来讲且允许循序渐进做些调整,我们预计到2020年碳排放征税的创收应相当于GDP的1%,而且其他着眼相似目标的政策(燃油税、可再生能源补贴、英国在欧洲排放交易计划<emissions-trading scheme>简称ETS)中的会员身份等等)将被废除或者减少。

The results are surprising. A frequent worry about carbon taxes is that they will hurt business and the economy. But in our simulation Britain’s economic performance would improve. Despite raising an extra £11 billion in net revenue by 2015 and £18 billion by 2020, our carbon tax (£31 a tonne in 2015) would help economic performance, not hamper it. Output would be 1.2% higher by 2020 than under the current arrangements.

收效将非常惊人。对碳排放征税人们常常担忧的是这将使商业和经济受到创伤。但在我们的模拟中,英国经济成就会有所改观。尽管到2015年纯财政收入将增加110亿英镑,2020年将增加180亿英镑,我们的碳排放税(2015年每吨征税31英镑)将会促进而非阻碍经济成就。到2020年现有制度下收效将提高1.2%。

Philip Summerton, of Cambridge Econometrics, explains that, with a general carbon tax replacing specific, expensive subsidies for renewable energy, more gas-fired power stations would be built. Since gas power is cheaper than wind power, for example, that would lower the cost of electricity. That, in turn, would boost production: manufacturing would grow by an extra 2.5% by 2020.

剑桥计量的Philip Summerton解释道,对碳排放征税代替了具体的高昂的可再生能源补贴,就将建成更多的天然气发电站。由于天然气比风能价格低,举个例子来说,这样就能降低发电的成本。反过来也将刺激生产:到2020年制造业将再增长2.5%。

Admittedly, not all the news is good. Britain already depends on gas for around 40% of its electricity, and it is running out of the stuff. The tax would do nothing for security and diversity of supply. Although electricity bills would fall, the price of gas (the most popular home-heating fuel) would rise. Average domestic fuel bills would climb by around 0.5% between 2010 and 2020. And Britain is in fact unlikely to withdraw from the ETS, so the relationship between the ETS price for carbon and the one set by the British taxman (in our test, higher) needs some thought.

得承认,并非全是好消息。英国现在天然气发电量已占约40%,而且天然气即将耗尽。征税对供应保障和多样性也无能为力。尽管电费会降低,天然气(最常见的家庭取暖燃料)价格将升高。2010年至2020年之间家庭平均燃料费将会增加0.5%左右。而且事实上英国退出排放交易计划的可能性也不大,因此,排放交易计划碳价与英国征税人所定碳价(我们的测试中,此价更高一些)两者的关系还需再斟酌。

Confining the revenues from our tax to 1% of GDP led to greenhouse-gas emissions of 568m tonnes in 2020, around 6% more than they would otherwise have been. This was a bit of a blow. But a higher tax rate could drive emissions down, says Mr Summerton, and, in return for slightly more emissions, Britain gains a significantly bigger economy and a useful revenue stream. This suggests that a carbon tax would be more efficient than the current hotchpotch of policies.

将碳税收入限制在GDP的1%以内将导致2020年排放5.68亿吨的温室气体,比不限制碳税收入比例温室气体排放量多6%左右。这将是小小的一击。但若碳税更高,排放量应该能降低,Summerton说,而且,如果排放量稍多一点,英国经济就会有显著增长,而这也是一个有效的收入来源。这说明,一条碳税政策就比当前一堆乱七八糟的政策更具实效。

A carbon tax has many more general advantages as a fiscal tool, too. It would be simpler and more predictable than the current jumble of tax breaks, trading schemes and purchasing obligations. The principle—that polluters pay for the damage they cause—is easily grasped, and it is politically attractive to tax “bads” such as pollution instead of “goods” such as work and entrepreneurship. And, by establishing a reliable price for carbon, it could give businessmen the certainty they need to invest in greener technologies. But the effect of that is likely to show up only after 2020.

碳税政策作为一项财政手段还有更多更广泛的优势。这比当下一堆减税优惠政策、交易计划和购买力债券更简洁也更容易预测。谁污染谁负责,这条原则很容易掌握,而且从政策实施层面来讲对污染等“坏事儿”而不是工厂、企业等“好事儿”收税非常有吸引力。而且,给碳排放制定一个合理的价格,商人就能够确定他们需要投资更环保的技术。但,收效要到2020年以后才能显现。
 

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