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日本:大祸临头而不自知

来源:英语文库 时间:2018-12-06 点击:

FOR years foreign observers gave warning that Japan’s combination of economic stagnation and rising public debt was unsustainable. Over the past two decades the country has stumbled in and out of deflation, slipped down the global league tables on many social indicators and amassed the largest gross public debt-to-GDP ratio in the world (a whopping 190%). Yet government-bond yields have remained stubbornly low and living standards, by and large, are high. Visit the country and you will see no outward sign of crisis. Politicians and policymakers have bickered and schemed, but have mostly chosen to leave things as they are.
近几年来,外国观察者一直警告说,在经济停滞和攀升的政府债务的夹击下,日本政府肯定坚持不了多久。过去的二十年里,日本与通货膨胀几番交锋,在许多社会指标方面,日本在国际上的排名更是大幅下滑。日本的总债务与国民生产总值比率也居世界之首(惊人的190%)。然而,尽管政府债券收益微薄,日本国民的总体生活水准却很高。去日本走一遭,你看不到有什么危机的外在征兆。日本政坛也很活跃,政客们和政策制定者们又是争吵,又是计划,但就是没有实际行动。

That cannot go on much longer. The figures are getting worse. Japan urgently needs radical policies to tackle the problems, and new leaders to implement them.
这种现状维持不了多久了。各项经济指标都在恶化。日本迫切需要极端的政策来解决问题,以及执行这些政策的领导人。

Triple troubles
三座大山

There are three big reasons why the crisis in Japan’s public finances will eventually come to a head. The first concerns government bonds. The state has for years relied on domestic savers to buy them. But as Japan’s people age and run down their savings, they will have less money to invest in government bonds. An IMF paper calculates that even if the savings rate remains close to where it is now, gross debt may exceed gross household assets by 2015. Japan might then have to rely on foreigners to finance its debt, and they will want much higher returns. That will, at the very least, provide an acute reality check. Goldman Sachs says some foreign investors are already positioning themselves for a “meltdown”.
日本金融界爆发危机是迟早的事情,原因有三。第一,政府债券。近几年来,购买政府债券的主力军一直是国内的日本人。但是随着人口的老化以及储蓄的减少,将来,日本人就不会有那么多钱来投资政府债券了。一份国际货币基金组织的报告预计,即使银行储蓄率维持在现有的水平,日本的总债务也会在2015年超过日本国民的总资产。到那时,恐怕日本只有求助于外国投资者了,但是后者要求的回报率会更高。但这至少给了日本一个检视现实的机会。高盛说一些外国投资者已经站好位置,只等日本经济“崩溃”了。

The second, more immediate problem is deflation. Falling prices may have helped the government by providing its bondholders with invisible gains, but in other ways deflation is a menace. It pushes the debt-to-GDP ratio inexorably higher. As expectations of deflation become entrenched—35% of Japanese expect prices to be the same or lower in five years’ time—they will continue to depress consumption.
第二,通货紧缩,这个问题更迫切。下滑的物价的确给了债券持有人一些看不见的好处,也帮了政府一个忙,但是从其它方面来说,通货紧缩有百害而无一利。它让债务与国民生产总值比率更高了。现在,通货紧缩的预测已经占据上风---35%的日本人预计物价在未来五年内会持平或更低。这种预计只会进一步打压消费。

Third, despite the recent pick-up in global economic activity, Japan cannot count on foreign demand being strong enough for it to sustain export-led growth, as it did in the past decade. Without a stronger domestic economy, growth will not generate enough tax revenue to reduce the debt. One ominous sign is that in the 2010 budget implemented on April 1st, borrowing, at ¥44 trillion ($468 billion), is for the first time forecast to exceed tax revenues, at ¥37 trillion.
第三,尽管最近国际经济形势回暖,但是日本绝对不要指望外国需求像过去几十年一样强劲,也不要指望靠它来拉动出口,促进经济增长。没有活跃的国内经济,即使总体经济增长,也不能产生足够的税收来偿还债务。4月1日执行的2010预算方案的借款高达44万亿日元,预计将是有史以来第一次超过税收收入(37万亿日元)。这是一个不详的征兆。

Japan’s efforts to tackle these problems have resembled a big whimper (see article). What is needed is a big bang. That means structural reforms to raise productivity, fiscal reforms to boost growth and a strong monetary stimulus, all at once, to shock the economy back to life. These could range from an overhaul of the tax code to deregulation of farming and the opening up of protected areas of the economy, such as transport and energy, to foreign competition. A sensible short-term aim for the government would be robust nominal GDP growth. That would help stop the debt-to-GDP ratio rising, and would also ensure that the authorities did not prematurely choke off a recovery because of concerns about inflation.
日本政府在解决这些问题时,表现得就像个正在抽泣的羞答答的小姑娘。现在需要的是大动作。这个大动作包括经济结构改革以促进生产力,财政改革以刺激经济增长,还有更彻底的货币刺激方案。总之,三管齐下,让经济起死回生。这些改革应该涵盖方方面面,从税收体系的大调整到放松畜牧业管制再到诸如运输,能源等受保护经济领域的开放等,不一而足。但是,从短期来看,日本政府比较合理的目标是实现名义国民生产总值的强劲增长。这将扼制债务与国民生产总值比率攀升的势头,也保证了日本政府不会因为担心通货膨胀,而过早的掐灭经济复苏的苗头。

But all this assumes that policymakers want to be bold. The current crop is anything but. Last September, when almost 55 years of one-party rule came to an end, there were faint hopes that the Democratic Party of Japan (DPj) might take a fresh approach. It has not done so. Yukio Hatoyama, the prime minister, and his most influential backer, Ichiro Ozawa, have since been caught up in election-funding scandals that have shredded the government’s credibility. They are clinging to their jobs, more concerned with their own futures than that of the DPj, or indeed Japan.
但是所有这些都基于一个假设,那就是日本政策制定者渴望勇敢起来。现在的日本领导人让人不抱一丝幻想。去年9月,自民党长达55年的独霸局面终于被打破。人们曾经寄希望于上台的民主党会有一番新气象。但是,这种希望破灭了。上台不久,新首相鸠山和他最有影响力的支持者小泽一郎就因为竞选资金丑闻而焦头烂额,政府的公信力也大大受损。他们只求自保,比起民主党,或者日本,他们更关心的是自己的前途。

Enlightened economic policymaking suffers most. Mr Hatoyama prevaricates over fiscal reform, arguing that Japan should wait until the next general election in 2013 before shaking up the tax system. He is wrong. Japan urgently needs cuts in business taxes, perhaps, as well as a gradually higher spending tax. The ousted Liberal Democrats are just as out of touch (see article). When a group of supposed reformers left the splintering party this week to set up a new outfit, it could have grabbed the fiscally conservative, business friendly centre. Instead it moved to the right, as if anti-immigrant nationalism were the tonic Japan needs.
开明的经济政策制定深受其害。在财政改革问题上,鸠山讳莫其深,说在2013年的大选来临前,日本不应该触动税收体系。这种想法大错特错。日本迫切需要削减商业税收,也许,不断爬高的支出税也应该成为减税的对象。竞选失利的自民党也莫衷一是。本周,一群被认为是改革派的人退出了四分五裂的自民党,成立了新组织。这个组织本来可以争取支持保守财政政策和亲商业的中间派的,但是它却倒向了右派,好象反移民的民族主义才是日本的灵丹妙药似的。

It is time for more fiscally astute members of Mr Hatoyama’s government to set the agenda. The main opposition, too, needs regime change. Japan’s old guard worries that radical steps will precipitate an economic crisis, and so prefers the status quo. It does not realise how inherently dangerous the status quo is.
是时候由鸠山更加精明的内阁成员们来制定日程表了。主要的反对派也需要一场体制改革。日本的卫道士们担心剧变会加快经济危机的步伐,所以倾向于维持现状, 殊不知现状已然多么凶险。

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