The Federal Reserve 美联储

AMERICA’S GDP is growing, employment is finally expanding and the stockmarket is buoyant. Yet one thing has not changed: the Federal Reserve’s monetary pedal remains firmly pressed to the floor. For more than a year it has kept its short-term interest-rate target near zero while pledging to keep it there for an “extended period”. It has also bought $1.7 trillion of long-term bonds, primarily mortgage-backed securities (MBS), to keep long-term interest rates down.

GDP不断增长，就业率终于有所攀升，股票市场也在看涨，但如今的美国还有一件事情没有改变——美联储仍将货币政策扩张的油门一踩到底。联储把短期利率定在接近零的水平已经超过一年了，并保证将在“延长期”延续这个政策。为了调低长期利率，他们购买了1.7万亿美元的长期债券，其中主要是房产抵押证券。

That is unsettling some inside the Fed, fuelling speculation it will soon signal an exit from that ultra-easy monetary policy, perhaps even by altering its “extended period” commitment when its next two-day policy meeting wraps up on April 28th.

这让美联储内部出现了一些不安，越来越多的人猜测美联储会发出极度宽松货币政策的推出信号，可能在4月28日美联储为期两天的政策会议后，他们就会更改之前的“延长期”承诺。更多信息请访问：http://www.24en.com/

The most vocal dissident is Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and the Fed’s longest-serving policymaker, who has twice formally objected to the Fed’s “extended period” language. That commitment plus zero rates, he explained on April 7th, lead “banks and investors to search for yield… take on additional risk [and] increase leverage”. He argued the Fed should soon raise rates to 1% to “end the borrowing subsidy”.

最大声的抗议来自托马斯•霍恩尼格，堪萨斯联邦储备银行行长，也是美联储最资深的政策制定者。他曾经两次对美联储“延长期”的说辞提出正式抗议。在4月7日他解释道，对保持零利率的承诺，会导致“银行和投资者搜寻利润，承担附加风险和助涨高杠杆率”。他主张美联储应尽快将利率提升到1%，以结束“对借贷的补贴”。

The next day Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Minneapolis Fed, voiced a different concern: that the excess bank reserves created by the Fed’s MBS purchases create the potential for high inflation. He advocated selling $15 billion-25 billion of MBS a month, which would clear the Fed’s inventory in five years instead of the 30 it would take for the bonds to mature.

就在第二天明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长娜拉亚娜•科切兰科塔提出了另一种担忧：联储对房产抵押债券的购买造成了银行的超额储备金，这将是高通胀的隐患。他支持每月出售150亿—250亿美元的房产抵押债券，这将使美联储不必等到30年后债券到期，而在5年内清理好账目。

The rest of the Fed and its chairman, Ben Bernanke, have listened politely but are not ready to drop or even water down the “extended period” language, much less raise rates. Dropping the commitment would be tantamount to a tightening of monetary policy as bond yields rise in anticipation of short-term rate hikes. Mr Bernanke has already said the Fed would eventually sell some MBS, but not now. By pushing up long-term rates that too would be a tightening of monetary policy.

其余的联邦储备银行领导和联储主席，本•伯南克，对这些建议耐心倾听，但并没准备放弃或者冲淡“延长期”政策，亦不打算多少调高些利率。对零利率承诺的放弃相当于货币政策的收紧，这会增加短期利率上升的预期，从而抬高国债利率。伯南克已经表示美联储一定会出售一些房屋抵押债券，但不是现在。推升长期利率同样意味着收紧货币政策。

Bank credit is contracting and getting more expensive. Excess bank reserves will not lead to inflation so long as the Fed can still raise interest rates, which it can. Indeed, the Fed has an embarrassment of ways to tamp down inflationary pressure when the time comes, from raising interest rates on excess reserves to selling bonds to telling banks to tighten lending standards. It has far fewer tools at its disposal for battling deflation, not a remote risk.

银行信贷正在缩减并且成本越来越高。只要美联储还能提高利率银行的超额储备金就不会引起通货膨胀，他们确实有提高利率的空间。其实，当通胀来临时压低通胀预期方法并不单一，从提高超额准备金率到通过发行国债向银行发出收紧贷款标准的信号，这也让美联储有些左右为难。一旦面对通货紧缩，它可行的办法就少得多了，而通缩的危险也不远。

Still, as long as the recovery proceeds, the debate cannot be put off forever. The Fed will spend a lot of its policy meeting talking about how to talk about its exit. The Bank of Canada has helpfully provided a tutorial. On April 20th it dropped its own commitment to keeping its short-term rate at 0.25% until the second half of this year, citing stronger growth and firmer inflation than expected. “The need for such extraordinary policy is now passing, and it is appropriate to begin to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus,” it said. Bond yields and the Canadian dollar rose in response.

然而随着复苏的持续，对货币政策的争论不可避免。美联储要多开几次政策会议以讨论货币政策退出信号该如何发出。而加拿大央行的做法值得借鉴。考虑到强劲的增长和通货膨胀都高于预期，加拿大央行在4月20日放弃了将0.25%的短期利率保持到下半年的承诺。他们表示：“现在对特殊政策需求不再，而且减少货币刺激力度的时机已到。”国债利率和加元应声上涨。

The Fed also sees its “extended period” commitment as conditional. It does not mean six months, as many seem to think, but only as long as unemployment remains high and inflation (both actual and expected) stays low. If those things change, so will interest rates.

美联储承诺的“延长期”也是因地制宜的。它并不一定是6个月，很多人如此认为，而取决于高失业率和低通胀（真实和预期的）。只要这两个因素有所改变，利率也会变。