Iran's nuclear programme 伊朗核计划

TWO leaders from two big regional powers, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, took a risk in travelling to Iran and negotiating over the country"s contentious nuclear programme. Many said they would fail. Instead the two announced triumph on Monday 17th May, clutching hands with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran"s president. But will Western leaders, pressing for new sanctions on Iran, see it as enough?

两大区域强国巴西和土耳其的领导卢拉及埃尔多安冒险前往伊朗，就该国颇受争议的核计划问题进行协商。很多人对此行结果并不看好。然而，5月17日星期一，两国领导同伊朗总统艾哈迈迪―内贾德之间的握手宣告了谈判的成功。但对寻求对伊新一轮制裁的西方国家领导而言，这就足够了吗？

Under the new deal, Iran says it would send 1,200 kg of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to Turkey. In exchange it wants 120 kg of uranium enriched to a higher level (around 20%) for a research reactor which produces isotopes that can be used in medicine (typically for the treatment of cancer), within a year.

根据新协议，一年内，伊朗将向土耳其输送1200千克储备低纯度浓缩铀以交换其120千克浓缩铀（纯度约20%）用以生产药用（特别用于癌症的治疗）同位素的研究用反应堆。更多信息请访问：http://www.24en.com/

If this sounds familiar, it is because the outlines of the deal are close to those struck last October between France, Russia, Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with American support. Under that plan, 1,200kg of uranium would have been sent to Russia for enrichment to 20%. The material would then have been sent on to France to be turned into fuel rods.

如果这听起来耳熟的话，是因为该协议的要点近似去年十月美国支持下法国，俄罗斯，伊朗及国际原子能机构之间签订的协议。当时协议要求伊朗运送1200千克低纯度铀到俄罗斯，加工浓缩至20%后再运抵法国制成燃料棒。

Iran backed out of this deal, demanding higher-enriched uranium immediately, and insisting the swap take place in Iran. Details of the new deal have yet to be hammered out, but Messrs Lula and Erdogan seem to have convinced Iran to give some ground on where and how quickly the enrichment would be done. With Iran’s apparent concessions in hand, the two mediating presidents now say there is no need for further sanctions from the UN Security Council (where both countries currently sit among the 15 members).

伊朗方面随后背弃这一协议，要求直接获得高纯度浓缩铀，并坚持交换活动须在伊朗境内进行。新协议的细节还需进一步商讨确定，但卢拉及埃尔多安似乎已然确信伊朗方面会就提纯地点及速度做出让步。既然伊朗已经同意让步，土巴两国领导认为联合国安理会（两国目前皆是安理会15个理事国成员）目前没有必要对伊采取进一步制裁。

Leaders in other Western capitals are unlikely to see things that way. Until Turkey and Brazil got involved, Iran’s negotiations had primarily been with the five permanent members of the Security Council—America, Britain, France, Russia and China—as well as Germany and the IAEA. The Turkish-Brazilian deal must now go to them for their approval.

然而其他西方国家的领导并不这样认为。在土耳其和巴西两国插手此事之前，谈判主要是在伊朗与安理会五个常任理事国——美国，英国，法国，俄罗斯和英国之间进行，此外也包括德国及国际原子能机构。因此现在，土耳其及巴西之间的协议还必须得到上述国家及组织的认可。

France"s foreign ministry and the European Commission both faintly praised the deal, while noting that it did nothing to solve the underlying impasse between an Iran that has carried on enriching and the countries that want it to desist. The British government said it would continue to work towards a resolution on sanctions in the Security Council.

法国外交部及欧共体对此协议赞许矜持，同时还指出该协议对已自行铀浓缩的伊朗及希望其停止此活动的国家之间的根本僵局所在并无任何帮助。英国政府表示他们会继续推动安理会对伊制裁。

The thinking behind the failed October deal was to take most of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium out of play, in order to create time for negotiations. But because Iran has carried on enriching uranium since it turned down the October deal, it has quite a lot more of the low-enriched stuff sitting around than it would send to Turkey under the new deal (some 1,100 kg according to Jacqueline Shire of the Institute for Science and International Security). Getting uranium from 20% enriched to the 90% or so needed for a bomb takes a lot less effort than getting to the original 3.5% in the first place. So even if the new deal with Brazil and Turkey sticks it is unlikely to buy Iran much time to avoid a vote on sanctions.

去年十月流产的协议背后目的是要将伊朗的浓缩铀储备降至最低，以此为谈判争取时间。然伊朗方面拒绝此项协议并已着手铀浓缩，虽然新协议要求伊朗运送土耳其的低纯度浓缩铀（根据科学与国际安全研究所Jacqueline Shire所说，约1,100千克），但这远远低于伊朗的储备。想要将浓度20%的铀浓缩至爆炸所需大约90%的浓度比最初浓缩至3.5%要简单很多。因此，即便伊朗与巴西，土耳其间的新协议生效，避免制裁也不会花费伊朗太多的时间。

Word at the UN had it that a sanctions deal (a full arms embargo, financial and shipping sanctions and restrictions on the Revolutionary Guard) was near. Russia has recently joined America in sending a stronger signal that Iran must stop enrichment, as the UN Security Council has demanded, and answer the IAEA"s increasingly pointed questions about activities that appear to indicate an interest in weapons development. This would have left only China in a position to veto sanctions, and China has traditionally not liked to veto alone.

联合国方面消息称制裁决议几近出台（全面武器禁令，财政及航运制裁及革命卫队限制）。最近，与联合国安理会对伊要求相同，俄罗斯继美国之后，也就伊朗必须停止铀浓缩强调了立场。至此，能就制裁行使否决权的就仅剩中国，而中国向来没有独自行使否决权的传统。

The case against sanctions, in other words, seemed to be crumbling. But Turkey and Brazil might just succeed in swinging other temporary members of the Security Council against sanctions. Lebanon is already publicly sceptical, and Gabon has called for a negotiated solution. Mexico may feel caught between its important American relationship and its regional partner and rival, Brazil. Even if none of the veto-wielders bolts, the Western coalition could have to scrape for the nine votes needed, sending a weak signal.

换句话说，反对此项制裁的可能几乎为零。但土耳其和巴西也许会成功左右安理会其他非常任理事国反对这一制裁。黎巴嫩已公开对此制裁表示质疑，加蓬号召协商解决。墨西哥则深陷两难境地，一方面是其与美国之间的重要关系，另一方面则是地区伙伴兼对手，巴西。即便持否决权的各国都不支持取消该制裁，西方联盟也会发出微弱信号，设法取得所需9票。

Unless details of the new deal (a letter is to be sent to the IAEA this week) contain pleasant surprises, it appears Iran may have successfully repeated its old trick of widening divisions between the countries preparing to tighten the sanctions net around it. Israel has already said that Brazil, inexperienced in Middle East diplomacy, may have been manipulated, and more scepticism is certain in the days to come. Messrs Erdogan and Lula may not have long to savour their achievements.

除非新协议细节（本周将向国际原子能机构递交信函）包含惊喜，否则伊朗很有可能故技重施，设法扩大敦促对伊制裁国家间的分歧。以色列已经表示不熟悉中东外交的巴西很容易被人控制，未来数天很有可能加深质疑。埃尔多安和卢拉回味其胜利果实的时间可能不会太长了。