The week ahead 未来一周

•President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea is expected to refer North Korea to the UN Security Council for its part in the sinking of the Cheonan, a South Korean warship. 46 sailors died in the incident, which took place in March. South Korea may also ban ships from the North from its waters. It needs to balance a desire for redress against the unpredictability of Kim Jong Il, North Korea"s leader. Mr Kim has already threatened war if further sanctions are imposed on North Korea.

因朝鲜牵扯一艘南韩军舰（天安舰）的沉没事件，韩国总统李明博希望将朝鲜递交给联合国安理会处置。这起事件发生在今年三月中，46名海军官兵为此遇难。南韩可能也要阻止一些来自朝鲜的船只进入韩国水域。即使金二世（“朝鲜领袖”）的行为具有“不可预知性”，尽管韩国急切想要惩罚他，但仍需权衡利弊。金正日表示：“假如遭受进一步的制裁，朝鲜将以全面战争相威胁。

• THE corruption and squabbling of the Czech Republic’s political class has encouraged several new parties to attempt to capitalise on popular discontent in legislative elections that begin on Friday May 28th. Some of the country’s best-known intellectuals and cultural figures are backing a non-party movement called “Replace the Politicians” that wants a big clean-out. TOP 09 is a conservative, free-market grouping that has sent voters dummy invoices showing the level of the country’s debt. Public Matters, led by Radek John, now the country’s most popular politician, could play a role in forming a new coalition. But as in previous elections, voters divide evenly between right and left, making another weak, squabbling government consisting of one big party and some smaller fry all too likely. 更多信息请访问：http://www.24en.com/

捷克共和国的政界浮出一幕幕腐败丑闻，相互争吵不休。随着5月28日的立法选举在即，民众却对此普遍不满，这反而怂恿数个新政党试图将这种不满，转化为有利的政治资本。目前，在这个国家中，一些著名的知识分子与文化名流表示支持“取代政客”的无党派运动，希望利用这个运动实现一次大规模的政治清洗。排名第九的是保守而拥护自由市场的集团，它们发给选民一些虚假的票据，说明国家债务已到危如累卵的程度。现在领导“公共事务”的Radek John是该国最欢迎的政治家，他可能在组成新的政治联盟中扮演着一个角色。但正如前几次选举那样，选民分化了左派与右派，势均力敌。这种形势可能造成由一个大党与数个小党组成的政府，多方争吵不休，软弱无力。这样的政府实在太容易被“煎炒”。

• AFGHANISTAN is set to convene a national peace assembly from Saturday May 29th to discuss how to persuade Taliban insurgents to take part in peace talks. The meeting, known as a jirga, will include tribal elders, provincial chiefs, legislators and other important Afghans. Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan’s president, will use the assembly to present a draft of his plans to negotiate with the Taliban, a subject that he discussed at a meeting with Barack Obama in Washington at the beginning of May. A recent Taliban assault on Bagram airbase, an American stronghold, may well be a show of strength before the talks as much as a reaction to American plans for a big offensive in Kandahar, the insurgents’ heartland.

阿富汗将于5月29日召开国家和平大会，旨在讨论如何说服塔利班抵抗分子参加多轮和谈。出席这次会议（被称作为族长会议）的有部落领袖，各省的主管，立法委员与一些阿富汗名流。卡尔扎伊（阿富汗总统）将利用大会的契机提出由他所拟定的一个关于同塔利班谈判的计划草案。这一议题已在5月初同奥巴马的一次会面中探讨过。面对和谈与回击美国制定的坎大哈攻势军事计划（该地区是抵抗分子的心脏地带），塔利班最近对Bagram空军基地（一座美军要塞）开展袭击，完全表明它的实力依然健在（译者认为：作为谈判的筹码）

• COLOMBIANS go the polls on Sunday May 30th to elect a new president to replace Álvaro Uribe, the popular but term-limited incumbent. Juan Manuel Santos, who claims to be Mr Uribe’s heir, seemed a shoo-in last month until the emergence of Antanas Mockus. His Green Party has few seats in Congress but he has surged in opinion polls to draw neck-and-neck with Mr Santos and could well win in the event of a run-off. Mr Mockus combines a centrist appeal with a reputation for honesty, and has made a stand against corruption.

哥伦比亚人将于5月30日前往各个投票点，推选出一位总统替代Álvaro Uribe，这位现任的总统尽管很受欢迎，但任职期受限。Juan Manuel Santo（胡安曼纽尔桑托斯）宣称他是Uribe’先生的继承人，似乎直至Antanas Mockus出现之前，他一直胜券在握。尽管Antanas Mockus所领导的绿党在国会中几乎没有拥有席位，但在民意测验中，他的支持率却最近一路飙升，与桑托斯先生并驾齐驱；一旦进行决胜选举,他可能将大胜而归。Mockus先生因诚实而广受赞誉,对温和派具有吸引力，他已摆出反对腐败之风的姿态。