新美国梦:拒当房奴 租房更好

爱思英语编者按：教师夏娜•里奇怀念她用Glamour Girl美女贴纸给女儿们装饰的游戏室。消防员杰•费尔南德兹念念不忘自己在后院安装的迷你高尔夫球场。
School teacher Shana Richey misses the play room she decorated with Glamour Girl decals for her daughters. Fireman Jay Fernandez misses the custom putting green he installed in his back yard.
　　
不过，打从他们不再缴纳月供、搬离自己的房子之后，却发现放弃美国梦也自有其好处。
But ever since they quit paying their mortgages and walked away from their homes, they"ve discovered that giving up on the American dream has its benefits.
　　
如今，他们两家住在加州帕姆代尔市Club Rancho Drive道的同一个街区。在这一地区，楼市的不景气让他们可以租下豪华的房子。其中一座是带游泳池的，孩子们可以玩；另外一座可以看到高尔夫球场上的风景。而房租都只相当于过去月供的很小一部分。
Both now live on the 3100 block of Club Rancho Drive in Palmdale, where a terrible housing market lets them rent luxurious homes -- one with a pool for the kids, the other with a golf-course view -- for a fraction of their former monthly payments.
　　
里奇说，我们过上了更美好的生活，真的是这样。在放弃缴纳月供之前，她的未偿贷款比房子市值高出了约23万美元。
"It"s just a better life. It really is," says Ms. Richey. Before defaulting on her mortgage, she owed about $230,000 more than the home was worth.
　　
人们越来越甘愿放弃自己的房子，这显示出楼市泡沫破裂所带来的一种矛盾性的改变：在楼市泡沫破裂打碎了人们近乎神圣的有房梦的同时，却可能也在为经济复苏扫清道路。
People"s increasing willingness to abandon their own piece of America illustrates a paradoxical change wrought by the housing bust: Even as it tarnishes the near-sacred image of home ownership, it might be clearing the way for an economic recovery.
　　
抵押贷款数额远远超过了房屋价值，再加上低廉的租金，这些因素少有的同时出现让越来越多的家庭得出结论，新的美国梦就是租房住。
Thanks to a rare confluence of factors -- mortgages that far exceed home values and bargain-basement rents -- a growing number of families are concluding that the new American dream home is a rental.
　　
有些人马上就把房子和抵押贷款都抛在了一边，也有些人只是停止缴纳月供，直到银行把他们从房子里踢出去。这样，他们就释放了现金，可以用在别的方面。
Some are leaving behind their homes and mortgages right away, while others are simply halting payments until the bank kicks them out. That"s freeing up cash to use in other ways.
　　
里奇的五口之家用其中一部分钱买了迪斯尼乐园的季票，并计划明年3月份去墨西哥参加狂欢节之游。费尔南德兹则可以更多地请女友下馆子吃饭。里奇说，我们省下很多钱。
Ms. Richey"s family of five used some of the money to buy season tickets to Disneyland, and plans to take a Carnival cruise to Mexico in March. Mr. Fernandez takes his girlfriend out to dinner more frequently. "We"re saving lots of money," Ms. Richey says.
　　
美国的住房自有率创下了二十多年来的最大降幅，截至9月份已经从2004年的峰值69.2%降至67.6%。此外，还会出现更多租房住的人：信贷公司Experian和咨询公司Oliver Wyman预测，那些有能力支付月供、却选择“战略性违约”的房主2009年可能会超过100万人，较2007年的水平高出3倍多。
The U.S home-ownership rate has charted its biggest decline in more than two decades, falling to 67.6% as of September from a peak of 69.2% in 2004. And more renters are on the way: Credit firm Experian and consulting firm Oliver Wyman forecast that "strategic defaults" by homeowners who can afford to pay are likely to exceed one million in 2009, more than four times 2007"s level.
　　
违约对人们的信用不利，对银行也不利。越来越多的违约可能也意味着纳税人会因救助银行而蒙受更多的损失。
Stiffing the bank is bad for peoples" credit, and bad for banks. Swelling defaults could also mean more losses for taxpayers through bank bailouts.

德银证券(Deutsche Bank Securities)的分析师预计，到2010年底前，将有2,100万户美国家庭在抵押贷款上的债务超过房屋净值。如果其中有五分之一的家庭违约，对银行和投资者造成的损失就可能会超过4,000亿美元。这个损失占经济的比例大约与八十年代末、九十年代初美国储贷危机时遭受的损失相当。
Analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities expect 21 million U.S. households to end up owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth by the end of 2010. If one in five of those households defaults, the losses to banks and investors could exceed $400 billion. As a proportion of the economy, that"s roughly equivalent to the losses suffered in the savings-and-loan debacle of the late 1980s and early 1990s.
　
不过，反过来说，房主从巨额债务中松了口气，这可以帮助抵消失业率上升带来的痛苦，让消费者的口袋里有些钱。
The flip side of those losses, though, is massive debt relief that can help offset the pain of rising unemployment and put cash in consumers" pockets.
　　
据数据提供商LPS Applied Analytics估计，美国有480万户家庭至少3个月没有缴纳月供；这笔额外的现金流每月总计可能会达到约50亿美元；长期来看，这些钱将比奥巴马政府经济刺激计划提供的税项减免还要多。
For the 4.8 million U.S. households that data provider LPS Applied Analytics estimates haven"t paid their mortgages in at least three months, the added cash flow could amount to about $5 billion a month -- an injection that in the long term could be worth more than the tax breaks in the Obama administration"s economic-stimulus package.
　　
专门从事房地产和加州经济事务的咨询公司Beacon Economics的索恩伯格(Christopher Thornberg)说，这是一种隐含的刺激，这些人越早一点摆脱债务，经济就可以越早恢复健康、再次向前发展。
"It"s a stealth stimulus," says Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics, a consulting firm specializing in real estate and the California economy. "The quicker these people shed their debts, the faster the economy is going to heal and move forward again."
　　
奥巴马政府向银行施压迫使它们降低抵押贷款还款，进而让人们保住自己的房屋。而随着人们逐渐不再以违约为耻，政府在实施上述举措时可能会面临一场艰难的战斗。一些分析师说，这并不一定是正确的做法，特别是如果它阻止人们摆脱沉重的债务、以全新的面貌重新开始的时候。
As the stigma of abandoning a mortgage wanes, the Obama administration could face an uphill battle in its effort to keep people in their homes by pressuring banks to cut their mortgage payments. Some analysts argue that"s not always the right approach, particularly if it prevents people from shedding onerous debts and starting a fresh.更多信息请访问：http://www.24en.com/
　　
亚利桑那大学研究抵押贷款违约的法学教授怀特说(Brent White)，这些计划的结果常常是导致房主作出并非最有利于自己经济利益的决定。
"The effect of these programs is often to lead homeowners to make decisions that are not in their economic best interests," says Brent White, a law professor at the University of Arizona who has studied mortgage defaults.