乐天知命的克里斯蒂娜

EARLIER this year, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (pictured above), Argentina’s president, proffered some advice to European governments facing recession and market panic. Its essence was “stuff the IMF and carry on spending.” It is what she and her predecessor and husband, Néstor Kirchner, have practised since 2003. Argentina is one of only a handful of countries that refuse all dealings with the IMF. Almost a decade after it defaulted on $90 billion of debt when its economy collapsed, it still has few financial ties with the world and very little bank credit. Yet contrary to repeated forecasts of doom from orthodox economists, the economy is roaring.

今年早些时候，阿根廷总统克里斯蒂娜.费尔南德斯.德基什内尔(见上图)为面对经济衰退和市场恐慌的欧洲政府提出了一些建议。其内容实质是“让欧洲国家抛开国际货币基金组织，放开手脚加大财政开支。”这是03年以来她与前任总统丈夫南德斯.德基什内尔一直执行的政策。阿根廷是拒绝与国际货币基金组织（IMF）进行所有交易的少数国家之一。将近10年前，阿国经济处于崩溃，曾拖欠下900亿美元的巨额债务，现在仍旧与世界各国保持较少的财政联系和拥有少量的银行信贷。然而它的经济并不像正统经济学家多次预测那样厄运连连，反而一路高扬。

Or at least it seems to be. The numbers are a matter of dispute: in 2007 the government meddled in the statistics institute (called INDEC), and official figures now have little credibility. They show GDP as having risen by 0.9% last year, despite the world recession and a severe drought that hurt Argentina’s all-important farmers. But independent economists, who say the economy contracted by 2-2.5% last year, now forecast growth of up to 8% this year.

或至少看上去是这样。不过它的经济数字也成为争论的议题:2007年政府插手统计学会的事务(称作INDEC），这使官方数字缺乏了可信度。尽管世界经济仍处于经济衰退期，阿根廷严重的旱灾也使种植关键农作物的农民损失惨重，统计数字却显示去年国内生产总值（GDP）上升了 0.9% 。但独立经济学家说阿根廷的经济在去年萎缩了2-2.5%，预测今年的增长将达到8%。更多信息请访问：http://www.24en.com/

Like the expansion of 2003-08, this recovery is due mainly to fortunate circumstances. The drought has ended and Argentina, and especially its car industry, is benefiting from strong growth in Brazil. But the third element in the recovery is Ms Fernández’s expansionary policies, which are fuelling a consumer boom. And that is where the arguments start.

与03年至08年的经济扩张相同，这次经济复苏主要归功于有利的环境。阿根廷，尤其是它的汽车工业，受益于巴西强劲的经济增长。但经济复苏的第三个要素是费尔南德斯夫人的扩张性政策，这些政策刺激了消费热潮。不过这也成为激烈争辩的源头。

When the economy began slowing, Ms Fernández carried on spending: she gave loans to multinational carmakers and subsidies to keep workers in jobs. With tax revenues falling, she paid for these measures by raiding the national lottery and the pension system, which she nationalised in November 2008. In January this year the government siphoned off $6.6 billion from the Central Bank’s reserves in order to pay debt (a decision which prompted the resignation of the bank’s president, Martín Redrado). According to a senior official, these were emergency measures which saved jobs and welfare payments and the alternative, a fiscal squeeze, would have made the downturn worse.

当经济发展变缓的时候，费尔南德斯夫人实行宽松的财政开支政策:她为跨国汽车制造商提供贷款并提供补贴让工人有工可做。随着税收的下降，她又突然抽调国家彩票和养老金系统的资金来支撑她的政策措施，这两家机构在08年11月才被收归国有。今年1月政府从中央银行储备金中调拨660亿美元用于还债（这项决定促使行长Martín Redrado辞职）。一位高级官员称，这些紧急措施挽救了就业和福利支出，如果换另一种选择，财政紧缩会让经济衰退进步恶化。

Tax revenues are rising again and reserves have climbed to $50 billion, thanks to a healthy trade surplus (and despite the steady flight of capital from Argentina). But Ms Fernández’s measures are running up hidden costs. The first is inflation. Although the official consumer-price index rose by only 11% in the year to July, the government has tacitly endorsed the much higher estimates by independent economists by granting wage increases of around 25% to workers and recently raising tax brackets by 20%.

健康的贸易顺差使税收再次增加，储备金也攀升到500亿美元。(尽管阿根廷存在稳定的资本外逃）。但费尔南德斯夫人的措施也使隐形成本增加。首当其冲的就是通货膨胀。尽管官方消费价格指数在今年的1月至6月只上涨了11%，但独立经济学家称，由于工人薪金上涨了25%和近期税率上涨了20%，他们得出了更高的估计数字，对此政府已给予默认。

Second, the government’s unorthodox methods have unnerved investors. Officials are completing a second swap of bonds on which Argentina defaulted in 2001-02. That ought to open the way for the government to return to the bond markets, to cover debt payments falling due in 2011. But it would have to pay a punitive interest rate: because of the government’s lack of credibility, the credit-default-swap spread on Argentine debt stands at 8.2% (similar to that for Greece). Lowering it would require the government to clean up INDEC, commit itself to a more transparent fiscal and monetary policy and re-establish ties with the IMF, says Daniel Marx, an economic consultant in Buenos Aires. The last item may be too much for the Kirchners, who like to blame the fund for Argentina’s largely self-inflicted collapse of 2001-02.

其次，政府的非常规措施令投资者深感不安。官方正在完成克里斯蒂娜（Argentina）于01年至02年拖欠的第二期互换债券。这应该能为政府重返债券市场和偿还2011年到期的债务扫除障碍。但它将要支付一个很高的利率: 由于民众对政府缺乏信任度，阿根廷信用违约互换的债券的利差停留在8.2%。(这与希腊同等债券水平接近)。布宜诺斯艾利斯市的经济顾问丹尼尔.马克思(Daniel Marx）称，要想降低利率政府需要整顿INDEC，承诺实行更透明的财政和货币政策并与国际货币基金组织(IMF)重新建立联系。最后一个条件可能是内什劳尔夫妇最难以接受的，他们喜欢把阿根廷在01-02年主要由自己造成的经济垮崩溃归责于国际货币基金组织。

The Kirchners have been extraordinarily lucky that their time in power has coincided with a surge in Argentina’s terms of trade (see chart). Asia’s rising demand for food has pushed up the price of exports of soyabeans and other products from the bounteous pampas in relation to the price of the country’s imports. The first couple have extracted much of the farmers’ windfall in higher taxes, which they have recycled as subsidies and payments to poorer urban families.

基什内尔夫妇一直都非常幸运，他们执政期间适逢阿根廷进出口价格比急剧上升(见图)。与该国的进口价格相比，亚洲对粮食的需求推高了阿根廷大豆和富丽的潘帕斯草原产品的出口价格。第一夫妇通过较高的税额掠走了农民大部分暴利收入，他们再利用这笔资金补贴和支付给城市贫困家庭。

In the late 1940s a similar policy, with similarly beneficial terms of trade, turned Juan Perón into a popular hero, and his Peronist movement (to which the Kirchners belong) into the country’s dominant political force. But the Kirchners have been clumsy: their efforts to squeeze the farmers prompted a successful tax revolt in 2008 and made Ms Fernández unpopular.

20世纪40年代后期，类似的政策和同样有利的贸易条件让胡安.庇隆（Juan Perón ）成为广受欢迎的英雄，他的庇隆主义运动(基什内尔夫妇也在采用）使他成为该国的主导政治力量。但基什内尔夫妇往往不得其法:他们想尽办法压榨农民，终于在2008年激起一场成功的抗税运动，让费尔南德斯夫人不得人心。

In an election last year the opposition deprived the Kirchners of a clear majority in the Congress. As well as a measure to reform INDEC, Congress is discussing a bill that would raise pensions by almost 50% to compensate for inflation. If it passes, it will be harder for the government to use the pension system as a piggy bank.

在去年的选举中，反对党使基什内尔夫妇在国会绝对多数的优势丧失。同样，做为一项对INDEC改革的措施，国会正讨论一项法案，将把养老金提高50%来弥补通涨。如果此法案通过，政府将很难再把养老金系统当作自己的储蓄罐。

If world food prices were to fall suddenly, the Kirchners’ fiscal conjuring trick might blow up in their faces, setting off a spiral of devaluation and inflation. But for now their luck looks as though it will hold—at least until a presidential election next year. The opposition is fissiparous. Ms Fernández’s approval ratings (though not those of her husband) are reviving in tandem with the economy. She may yet squeak through for a second term.

如果世界粮食价格突然回落，基什内尔夫妇的财政魔术把戏很可能会弄巧成拙，并引发货币贬值和通货膨胀的交替上升。但现在他们的运气似乎仍会保持下去——至少能捱到明年的总统大选。反对党正处于四分五裂的状态。费尔南德斯夫人的支持率（尽管不象她丈夫那样高）也同经济一道逐渐回升。她最终可能侥幸赢得第二个任期。

There is a third cost to the Kirchners’ methods. The government is proudly pursuing an industrial policy, with officials claiming the credit for persuading car firms to stay in Argentina rather than move to Brazil, and for attracting some sneaker factories. The first couple’s harassment of private businesses they dislike, price controls and protectionist measures have been less blatant than those of their friend, Hugo Chávez, in Venezuela, but in the long term they will deter investment and make the economy less efficient. Although Argentina’s economy is twice as big as Chile’s, it has attracted barely half as much foreign investment as its neighbour since 2007, according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. The doomsayers have been wrong about Argentina, but they may yet be proved right in the end.

基什内尔夫妇的措施还要付上第三个代价。政府现在正得意于追求产业政策，官员们因为成功说服汽车制造商留在阿根廷而没有转移去巴西并吸引了一些运动鞋厂商而炫耀政绩。第一夫妇通过价格控制和保护主义措施让他们不得意的私人企业感到困扰，虽然他们还没有象委瑞内拉总统乌戈查韦斯（Hugo Chávez）做得那么露骨，但从长远看，这样做会阻碍投资并让经济效率下降。联合国拉丁美洲和加勒比经济委员会称，尽管阿根廷的经济实力是智利的两倍，但2007年以来阿国引入的外商投资还不到邻国的一半。悲观论者一直觉得自己对克里斯蒂娜（Argentina）估计是错误的，但终有一天他们会证明自己是对的。