前路艰辛The hard slog ahead

It will be a year of small advances for the West, argues John Micklethwait; better that, though, than big retreats
约翰•米可斯维特:西方世界明年前景叆叇 但仍强于大幅回退

“The commercial storm leaves its path strewn with ruin,” Alfred Marshall, a Victorian economist, once observed of financial crises. “When it is over, there is calm, but a dull, heavy calm.” That sounds a pessimistic way to approach 2010, a year which promises recovery. But think again. Not only does subdued growth seem the most likely path next year; it is enormously better than the alternative—heading back into the storm. This is a year in which politicians, especially in the West, will do better to err on the safe side, and not just with the economy. Both America and Britain in particular could see some fairly storm-tossed politics.更多信息请访问：http://www.24en.com/

“金融风暴卷席之处皆千疮百孔，”维多利亚时期的经济学家阿弗雷德-马歇尔曾在一次对金融危机的观测中如是说道，“当危机结束，剩下的是平静，死一般的平静。”如此看来，尽管2010的经济将开始复苏，但前景仍不算乐观。然而，换个角度来看，虽然明年的经济增长将会非常缓慢，但是这也比再次陷入金融风暴要好的多。2010年，政治家特别是西方政治家们将会尽量保持稳定，而非一味的追求经济的发展。尤其是英美两国的政治将会在风暴中经历动荡。

A weak, jobless recovery should set the scene in many countries. In 2009 world output probably shrank by more than 1% (on a purchasing-power-parity basis)—the first time since 1945 that the global economy actually got smaller. By the second half of the year all the world’s big economies had stopped shrinking, and optimists hope this will build into a sharp v-shaped bounceback. Sadly, the signs point towards a more gradual recovery (see leader, “Not so fast”).

在多国范围内，经济恢复很可能速率缓慢且失业率仍旧居高不下。2009年全球产出大约减少了1%还多（基于平价购买力不变的情况下）——这是自1945年以来全球经济产出第一次切实的减少。截止到2009年第二季度，全球各大经济体的经济均停止衰退，而乐观主义者则希望这将带领他们进入一个强势的V型反弹时期。让人遗憾的是，这一情况只是带来了一个更为缓慢的复苏（参见“领袖”栏目，《操之勿急》）。

True, there will be patches of perkiness in the emerging world. During this crisis India and especially China have powered ahead; there are even worries about a Beijing bubble, of rising house and share prices, helped by the undervalued yuan. Others have done well too. An increasingly confident Indonesia may well replace sluggish, kleptocratic Russia in the club of emerging superstars: the BRICs could become the BICIs. But even in the emerging world much of the growth will still come from government stimulus, rather than sustained private demand. And these economies, though growing fast, are not big enough to haul up the rest of the world.

而事实表明，新兴国家集团中将会出现新的活力。在此次危急中，例如印度特别是中国都保持着迅猛的发展；甚至有人开始担心由于北京日益飙升的房价和股价而形成的经济泡沫，而正是被人低估了人民币的价值使得这一情况得以出现。其他国家也表现尚佳。比起以往的颓败，印度尼西亚开始变得更有自信，而对于身在新起之秀俱乐部中的“盗贼帝国”俄罗斯：曾经的“金砖四国”很可能会变成“金砖三国”。尽管如此，这些新兴国家集团中大部分的经济增长仍旧来自于政府的刺激，而不是持久的个人消耗。并且这些经济体，虽然发展迅速，但仍为强大到足以将其他经济体拉出泥沼。

The American consumer, who selflessly provided so much of the demand in the previous boom, will surely keep her hands mostly in her pockets in 2010: American family balance-sheets are weighed down with debt and there is the specter of still-rising unemployment. By the end of the crunch as many as 25m people may have lost their jobs in the rich OECD countries: unemployment rates of “one in ten” could be the norm. In continental Europe personal debts are relatively low, but the banks look sickly. Japan, worn out by years of deflation, hardly seems ready to lead the way.

在之前经济繁荣时期，大部分的消耗均来自无私的美国消费者，因此在2010年他们将会攥紧自己的口袋：美国家庭的财政负债表已经负债累累并且持续上升的失业率也是他们挥之不去的梦魇。在危机结束之际，经济合作与发展组织国家中有大约2500万人失去了工作：“十分之一”的失业率只能停留在理论层面。在欧洲大陆，个人借贷相对较少，但是银行的情况则不容乐观。在日本，苦于持续数年的通货紧缩，前景同样堪忧。

For Barack Obama, the calm looks likely to be especially onerous
对于贝拉克-奥巴马，这种平静尤为让人担忧。

Indeed, Japan serves as a warning: it takes a long time to recover from balance-sheet recessions, and policymakers have to pull off some difficult tricks. Fighting deflation first, but keeping an eye on inflation; cleansing the banks rapidly, but keeping credit lines open; providing fiscal stimulus, but spelling out a way to cut public debts. Do all these things well and the recovery could be more v-shaped; get them wrong and a w soon appears. Given the record of central banks and treasuries thus far—a little slow and clumsy, but far more systematic than Japan in the 1990s—the best bet is somewhere in that dull heavy middle. Western economies will grow, but struggle with large deficits, heavy public debts and stubborn unemployment.

日本就是一个很好的警示：他们花了很长时间才从资产负债衰退中恢复过来，而决策者也不得不采取一些强硬措施。首先面临的便是来自通货紧缩的挑战，与此同时仍需确保不会出现通货膨胀；接下来则需迅速的整改银行，并保证信贷行业的开放；第三步则是进行财政刺激，削减公共负债。将这些步骤实施到位，才更可能出现V型复苏；如果实施情况欠佳，那很快便会出现双底衰退。各国中央银行和财政部迄今为止的数据显示——（全球经济复苏）速度缓慢且成效甚微，但是比起上世纪90年代日本的恢复情况要更为有条不紊——明智的赌注便是期待在气氛凝重的复苏中期会出现转机。西方经济将继续增长，不过巨额赤字，繁重的公共债务和挥之不去高涨的失业率将仍然是他们前进道路上的拦路虎。

Politics will also play a role. For Barack Obama, the calm looks likely to be especially onerous. Even if he has a health-care reform bill before the year starts, that carries risks. In political terms, he will “own” health care: suddenly every shortcoming in America’s system—each delayed appointment, insurance wrangle or botched operation—will be his fault. And in 2010 Afghanistan will be “his” war, its miseries laid at his door.
（在复苏过程中）政治也将扮演重要角色。对于贝拉克-奥巴马，危机后的平静尤为让人担忧。更何况年底之前他还有一项医改提案需要通过，而此举带有风险性。从政治角度来看，他将会“拥有”医疗体系：瞬时间，美国体制的种种弊端——滞后的任命，保险纠纷和草率的行动——均将归咎于他。同时2010年在阿富汗的战争也将成为“他”的战争，此次战争的一切不幸都会算在他的头上。

The delights of dullness
黑暗中的光明

This hard slog will surely bring some joy for Republicans in the November mid-terms; but it will also reveal more about this opaque president. In 2009 there was plenty of flam—symbolised by the meaningless Nobel peace prize, awarded for good intentions. Can he be tough, not just with Iran, Russia and North Korea but also with allies such as Germany (over troops in Afghanistan) or Israel (over settlements in Palestine)? Can he lead the way on climate change, the ultimate hard slog? Will he drift to the left, as businesspeople fear? Will he stand up to the protectionists in his party—or can we expect more sorry populism, such as the tariffs on Chinese tyres?

而这看似艰辛的漫漫路程却在11月中旬给共和党人带来些许慰藉；因为这将向向人们更多的揭示这位黑人总统的真正实力。2009年充斥着谎言——以毫无意义的诺贝尔和平奖为例，该奖只是为了鼓励拥有良好心愿的人。他（奥巴马）是否可以变得更为强硬，不仅是在同伊朗，俄罗斯或是朝鲜交锋之时，更是在面对像德国（关于驻阿军队问题），以色列（关于巴勒斯坦犹太人定居点问题）这样的同盟时态度坚定？在改善气候这一老大难问题上他是否可以起到领袖作用？他是否会同商界人士所担忧的那样变得更左？他是否会给与民主党中的贸易保护主义者以支持——或者我们应该期待更让人失望的平民主义，一如中国的轮胎关税？

For British politicians the going will be even heavier. Gordon Brown faces the grim prospect of probable defeat in a May election. For David Cameron, any joy in the Tories regaining power after 13 years will soon be muted by the fiscal mess Mr Brown will have left behind. Huge spending cuts beckon. At its best this offers a chance to reinvent government; but, given the vulnerability of Britain’s economy, the timing will be tricky.

对于英国的政治家来说任务更为艰巨。戈登-布朗在五月的选举中险些落马。尽管托利党在历时13年后有望重掌政权，但布朗将要留下的烂摊子却让大卫-卡梅隆仅有的一点喜悦也烟消云散了。政府将会大额消减花费。退一万步说，这将会提供一次重整政府的机会；不过，鉴于萧条的英国经济现状，前路依旧艰辛。

The Anglo-Saxon distress will doubtless prompt Schadenfreude across the English Channel. But Europe too has its woes: inflexible labour markets withstand recession well but are slow to recover. For all their banker-bashing rhetoric, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy are likely to push ahead with mild deregulation. After eight years of wrangling about the Lisbon treaty, the European Union would be wise to find a few opt-outs for Mr Cameron (to shut up his more rabid Eurosceptics), and then focus on the single market and further enlargement.

盎格鲁-撒克逊的低迷无疑让海峡对岸的欧洲幸灾乐祸。但是欧洲也自顾不暇：尽管坚挺的劳力市场足以应对经济的衰退但是恢复的速度却依旧缓慢。面对国民对银行家的种种讽刺，安吉拉-默克尔和尼可拉斯-萨科奇将很可能推行温和的撤销管制规定。在结束了里斯本协议的纷争八年之后，欧洲联盟会发现明智的做法便是放弃对卡梅隆的支持，然后集中精力在单一市场的发展和扩张上。

None of this will be quick. After two years of drama—economic collapse, rollercoaster markets, Mr Obama’s election—2010 may feel rather dull. Better that than the alternative.

所有一切都不会一蹴而就。在经历了近两年的演变后——经济崩盘，不稳定的市场，奥巴马2010年的大选前景尤为堪忧。但（目前的情况）仍旧比深陷泥沼要好的多。

John Micklethwait: editor-in-chief, The Economist; co-author of “God Is Back: How the Global Rise of Faith Is Changing the World” (Penguin/Allen Lane)
约翰•米可斯维特：经济学人总编；合著有《上帝回归：全球信心增长如何改变世界》