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Ethiopia: Five more years

来源:翻译 时间:2018-12-10 点击:

PRESIDENT Meles Zenawi and his ruling Ethiopian People"s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) expect a landslide victory in the general election due on May 23rd, and are likely to get one. The bigger question is whether another five years of EPRDF rule will help ordinary Ethiopians, who are among the poorest and hungriest people in the world.

总统 Meles Zenawi 和他的执政的埃塞俄比亚人民革命民主阵线(EPRDF)期待着在定于5月23日的大选上获得压倒性的胜利,而他们很可能得到这一结果。更大的问题在于EPRDF的又一个五年的执政能否给普通的埃塞俄比亚人——处于世界上最为贫困和饥馑之列——带来帮助。

The austere and cerebral Mr Zenawi has ruled the country since 1991, when he led his Marxist guerrillas to overthrow a brutish dictator, Mengistu Haile Mariam. Mr Zenawi remains wedded to what he calls “revolutionary democracy”, which emphasises collective will over individual ambition. He contends that a strong hand and development in the villages—rather than liberalising markets—is the way forward. And after a worryingly good show by the opposition in the last election in 2005, after which about 200 civilian protesters were gunned down by the police, it is the strong hand that has been much in evidence in the run-up to these elections. Press freedom, as well as the activities of some opposition parties and human-rights NGOs, have been curtailed to ensure a smoother ride for Mr Zenawi.更多信息请访问:http://www.24en.com/

严厉而理性的Zenawi先生从1991年就开始统治这个国家,那时他带领他的马克思主义游击队推翻了残暴的独裁者Mengistu Haile Mariam。Zenawi先生一直坚持他所称的“革命的民主”,这种理论强调集体意愿高于个人野心。他坚称,强硬的手段和农村的发展——而不是解放市场——才是前进的道路。而在反对派于2005年的上一次选举中令他头疼的良好表现之后(那次选举后约200名平民示威者被警察开枪打死打伤),在之后的选举的准备阶段中,明显的表现出来的却只有强硬的手段。新闻自由,还有一些反对党和非政府人权组织的活动被大大缩减,以确保Zenawi先生能够赢的更加顺风顺水。

The EPRDF made much in the election campaign of the country’s high levels of economic growth, averaging 8% or so a year. But that hides the puniness of the economy. Exports of $1.4 billion in the past financial year compare to $5 billion in neighbouring Kenya, which has half of Ethiopia’s population. Construction has boomed, but manufacturing continues to falter. Ethiopia has a cheap and disciplined workforce, but not the mulch of managers, accountants and commercial lawyers that investors want to see, and which they can find plentifully elsewhere in Africa.

在选战中,EPRDF着力强调这个国家的高速的经济增长——年平均值在8%左右。但是这掩盖了经济的弱小。在上个财政年度,埃塞俄比亚的出口额为14亿美元,相比之下,邻国肯尼亚出口额为50亿美元,而肯尼亚的人口数只有埃塞俄比亚的一半。(埃塞俄比亚的)建筑行业很繁荣,但是制造业仍然举步维艰。埃塞俄比亚拥有廉价而训练有素的劳动力,但是缺乏投资者想看到的高层次的人才:管理者,会计人员以及商业律师,而这些人才投资者们能够在非洲的其他地方找到很多。

The government’s instinct for centralised control continues to inhibit enterprise and depress growth. Ethiopia’s state-run banks are dwarfed by private-sector banks elsewhere in Africa. Mr Zenawi claims that communications are paramount, but his government has stymied the mobile-phone revolution for its own political ends. Elsewhere in Africa, the debate is about the relative merits of Blackberries and iPhones. In Ethiopia, it is simply about getting a phone. Equally devastating is state control of the internet. Connection is costly and slow. The official in charge of the internet at the state telecoms outfit appears to be a high-ranking secret-service officer. That is to combat hackers, say flustered EPRDF officials. More likely, he is employed to spy on citizens and block websites the government does not like—which include most produced by the Ethiopian diaspora.

政府追求中央集权的本能继续抑制着进取心,压抑着发展。埃塞俄比亚的国营银行在非洲其他地方的私营银行面前相形见绌。Zenawi先生宣称通讯系统是最重要的,但是他的政府为了自己的政治目的而阻挠着移动电话的革命。在非洲其他地方,争论是关于黑莓和iPhone的相对优缺点的,而在埃塞俄比亚,争论的仅仅是获得一部电话。具有同样破坏性的是国家对互联网的控制。网络连接价格贵而速度慢。在国家电信机构中负责管理互联网的官员表现的好像自己是情报机关的高级官员一样。这是为了打击黑客,紧张的EPRDF官员们说。更有可能的是,他其实是被雇佣来暗中监视民众、屏蔽那些政府不喜欢的网站的——海外散居的埃塞俄比亚人制作的绝大多数网站都在此列。

The EPRDF counters criticism by saying it has held the country together against subversives. “Separatist attitudes are waning,” insists the information minister, Bereket Simon, referring to the rebellious Ogaden and Oromo regions. He adds that much of the opposition has “links to the Shabab [the Somali al-Qaeda group] and Eritrea”, but that is delusional. In fact, the opposition is more nationalistic than the EPRDF, and some, particularly from the important Amhara region, would like to drive Eritrea into the sea.

EPRDF自称它把国家团结在了一起抵御颠覆分子,以此反驳受到的批评。“分裂主义者心态正在逐渐式微”,在谈到屡屡叛乱的Ogaden和Oromo地区时,信息部长Bereket Simon坚持说。他补充说很多反对派“和Shabab(索马里基地组织)与厄立特里亚有关联”,但那只是假象。事实上,反对派比EPRDF更加民族主义,有一些反对派,特别是来自重要的Amhara地区的,恨不得把厄立特里亚赶到大海里去。

More reasonably, the government can point to road building and rural electrification initiatives. The massive increase in schools and clinics in villages is impressive. Regional governments have more autonomy and mobilise more money and support than ever before. Some progress has been made in diversifying the economy. Coffee growers earn more thanks to better branding and smarter co-operatives and a flower industry has opened up.

要更合理(地反驳),政府其实可以谈论道路建设和乡村电气化计划。村子里学校和诊所的大量增加让人印象深刻。地方政府拥有了更大的自治权,而且比以前能够调动更多的钱和更多的支持。在经济多样化方面也取得了一些进展。归功于更好的品牌效应和更精明的合作社,咖啡种植者挣到了更多钱;花卉产业也已开始运作。

Yet party and state interests are too often muddled, with benefits denied to citizens who question the EPRDF. Many of those with the skills and creative thinking needed to help Ethiopia face up to its considerable problems are excluded from the political process. That includes journalists. Take Eskinder Nega. At the last election in 2005, he ran three Amharic language newspapers with his wife. Following the election violence, in which the EPRDF was implicated, Mr Nega and his wife were arrested on treason charges. Their son was born in prison. They have been pardoned, but continue to be harassed. A court has ruled out a relaunch of Mr Nega’s papers. “I am living proof this election is not free and fair,” he says, “if it was I would still be publishing”.

但是,党派和国家的利益总是被混为一谈——质疑EPRDF的公民被拒绝给予援助。那些具备了在帮助埃塞俄比亚面对它的诸多问题的时候非常需要的才能和创造性思维的人们,大多被排除在政治进程之外。这包括新闻工作者。拿Eskinder Nega作例子。在2005年的上次选举中,他和他的妻子经营了3份阿姆哈拉语报纸。随着选举暴力事件的发生(EPRDF也卷入其中),Nega先生和他的妻子受到叛国罪的指控而被捕。他们的儿子在监狱中出生。他们已经被赦免了,但是仍然继续被骚扰。法庭不准Nega先生的报纸重新发行。“这次选举不是自由和公正的,我是活的证据”,他说,“如果它是的话,我应该仍然在发行报纸”。

Ethiopia will probably remain one of the biggest recipients of Western aid over the next five years. The EPRDF may be authoritarian, but many think it is the best bet for cutting poverty at home and checking jihadists in Somalia. That may be ill-judged, and not just on moral grounds. Western money does not buy the leverage it used to. China is lending Ethiopia billions of dollars; $460m alone to build a controversial dam on the Omo river. Faced with the prospect of more nagging from the West about human rights and opening up the economy, Mr Zenawi can just choose the Chinese way.

在今后的五年中埃塞俄比亚很可能仍旧是西方援助的最大的接受者之一。EPRDF也许是独裁的,但是很多人认为要减少国内贫困,阻止索马里的圣战分子,它是最好的下注对象。这种想法可能是缺乏考虑的,而且不仅仅是基于道德的原因。西方的钱没有买到它过去常常能买到的影响力。中国正在给埃塞俄比亚借数以十亿计的美元;仅仅为在Omo河上修建一个有争议的大坝,就借出了4.6亿美元。面对着这样的前景——会有来自西方的更多的关于人权和开放经济的喋喋不休——Zenawi先生可能会选择中国之路。

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