Hunt the missing voter

IN SOME respects electioneering in Sudan would be instantly recognisable to the thousands of would-be MPs who set off on the campaign trail this week in Britain. Sudanese candidates, preparing for the presidential and general election that is due to start on April 11th and continue until the 13th, get on “battle-buses” to meet their constituents, are tended by party hacks and helped along by the odd spin-doctor. They address the party faithful at set-piece rallies, even if there is more ululating than on the average British hustings. And the crowds that listen to them are bored or ecstatic, depending largely on how long the candidates speak for.
在一些方面，苏丹的竞选对数以千计的本周在英国掀起竞选活动的准国会议员来说将会是即刻被识别。准备参加将始于4月11日持续到13日的总统竞选和普选的苏丹候选人，乘着“选举巡回车”去见选民们，他们深受党派文人爪牙和古怪偏颇的篡改文件的影响。即使在场有比一般的英国竞选演讲活动更多的哀泣，他们仍在固定的示威活动中忠诚地宣讲着党。听他们演讲的人群，要么就是感到无聊，要么就是欣喜若狂，这多半取决于候选人的发言到底有多久。

But the differences are large. For one thing, no one is sure whether the polls will take place on time—if at all. Take Mariam al-Mahdi’s tour of her constituency this week. A parliamentary candidate, she is a leader of the Umma party, the main northern opposition to President Omar al-Bashir’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP). She had two big quandaries. The first was whether her party would, in the end, be competing, since it had called for the poll to be postponed. Her second was whether she could find the voters.
但是不同之处是众多的。在所有的当中有一点是相同的，就是没人能确定投票会不会准时进行。用玛丽亚姆•迈赫迪（Mariam al-Mahdi）本周前往其选区的巡回演讲作为例子。作为一名议会候选人，她是乌玛党（the Umma party）的领导人，对于总统奥马尔•巴希尔（Omar al-Bashir）领导的国家议会党（National Congress Party）来说，乌玛党是北方主要的反对党。以前她有两大窘况。一是她的政党最终究竟能否参加竞争——因为该政党已经要求将投票延期。二是她能否寻找到选民。

Though there were supposed to be 47,000 of them registered in the red desert that forms the largest part of her “Area 11” constituency, it was hard to find anyone who knew much about the election, let alone a registered voter. At the tiny hamlet of Wadi al-Faki, a few mud huts about 50km (30 miles) west of Omdurman, the city that is across the Nile from the capital, Khartoum, a local man said that 20 of the 40 adults had registered. But according to the official register, this and a similar neighbouring village were supposed to be bulging with 622 voters. Farther down the road, another scruffy settlement called Wadi al-Saial was said to have only about 50 people, children included. But officially there were 478 registered voters. Where are the phantom voters? “Maybe they were underground,” joked an Umma official.
尽管选民当中应该有47000人是在红瘠地登记过了，并形成了她最大的“11号选民区”，但几乎没一个人对选举懂得多少，更不用说注册选民了。在恩图曼（Omdurman）以西50公里（30英里）的只有几间泥棚子的小村庄瓦迪阿法基（Wadi al-Faki），城市从首都喀土穆（Khartoum）横跨尼罗河，一个当地人说，那儿有一半的成年人是登记了的。但是官方的记录里，那儿和情况相似的邻村应该是膨胀为622个选民了。顺着公路往远一点走，另一个脏兮兮的地方叫作瓦迪阿萨亚尔（Wadi al-Saial）的，据说包括孩子，才只有约50个人。但是官方的登记数字是478个选民。哪儿有这么多有名无实的人呢？“没准儿他们是从地底下冒出来的”，一位乌玛官员开玩笑道。更多信息请访问：http://www.24en.com/

At the end of the day the Umma team took a long drive through a vast shanty town on the fringes of Omdurman itself, damningly known as the “black belt” to the lighter-skinned Arabs of Khartoum. Here live hundreds of thousands of the poorest Sudanese, displaced from Darfur or the south, regions where the present regime’s wars have killed a huge number and made millions homeless. Yet Ms Mahdi believes that only 5,000 of the shanty town’s voters (among whom are many of Mr Bashir’s most bitter opponents) have been included in her constituency.
一日将尽的时候，乌玛成员远远地驱车穿越了就位于恩图曼本身外围处的一个贫民区，即喀土穆的浅皮肤的阿拉伯人所谓的该死的“黑暗地带”。这儿居住着的成百上千的穷苦的苏丹人，从达尔富尔（Darfur）或南方搬来，如今的政权当年就是把那儿作为战场的，很多人在战乱中丧命，数百万人无家可归。然而，迈赫迪认为，贫民区选民中（他们中有最痛恨巴希尔（Bashir）的仇敌）只有5000名是她的选民。

The conclusion drawn by the Umma team is that the government-appointed National Election Commission (NEC) has boosted the number of voters in places where the NCP thinks people will vote for it and severely under-registered neighbourhoods where its opponents are strong. Come polling day, some suggest, an anonymous official finger will stamp the box by the tree, the ruling party’s election symbol in a country where about half the population is illiterate. If this sort of rigging works across the country, Mr Bashir should easily win the presidential race.
乌玛成员得出的结论是，政府所指定的国家选举委员会(NEC)，认为某些地方人们的票数会远远少于有着强劲对手的邻近地区，便夸大了那些地区的选民数量。有的人建议选举日过来，会发现一位匿名官员的手指会用树来为选票箱作记号，这是在一个大约一半的人口是文盲的国家里，执政党的选举标记。假如这种操纵方式遍布全国，巴希尔应该会轻而易举地赢得总统竞选。

This precooking of the election eventually persuaded Ms Mahdi’s Umma party, three days before the vote, to say it would boycott the poll at every level. The Communists had already pulled out. The main southern opposition party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), withdrew its presidential candidate and most of its parliamentary ones in the north. Yet the boycott seemed certain to give Mr Bashir, wanted for alleged crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court, a virtual walk-over.
这种选举预热，最终使得迈赫迪领导的乌玛党在投票三天前称将对投票进行层层抵制。共产主义者们已经退出了。主要的南方反对党，苏丹人民解放运动 (SPLM)，撤下了其在北方的总统候选人和大多数的议员候选人。然而，看来抵制定会正中巴希尔的下怀，他希望抵制行为被国际法庭裁定为所谓的危害人类罪，从而令他自己实质上轻而易举地胜出。

So confusion reigns. The candidates’ names and symbols have already been printed on ballot papers. Many voters will have no idea which party is boycotting what particular level of election. If voters pick boycotting candidates, will the winners take up their seats? Perhaps, to appease the opposition a little, the NEC could declare a short postponement of the election to sort out some of the irregularities. This is unlikely but could yet happen.
所以局面使人迷茫。候选人的名字和标志已经在选票上打印出来了。很多选民不知道哪个党在抵制什么样级别的选举。假如选民们选择了进行抵制的候选人，那么胜出的一方会占到席位吗？或许，为了平息一点点反对方的情绪，国家选举委员会可以宣布为清理出违规行为短暂地推迟选举。这看似不可能，但也有可能发生。

What went wrong?
错在何处？

It was all supposed to turn out so differently. The election was sold as the mechanism for “democratic transformation” in Africa’s largest country. It is an integral part of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed between the Muslim north of the country and the Christian and animist south in 2005. The CPA brought an end to Africa’s longest-running civil war—which had cost 2m lives and forced millions to flee their homes, often to the black belt around Omdurman and Khartoum—and was designed to resolve the country’s problems at a stroke.
一切总是事与愿违。在非洲最大的国家，选举像部 “民主转换”机器一样被出卖。该国是由北部的穆斯林、南方的基督徒和万物有灵论者在2005年签署的《全面和平协定》的主要部分。该协定，结束了非洲为期最长的内战——200万人为此付出了生命代价，数百万人被迫离开家园通常逃往恩图曼和喀土穆周边的黑暗地带——而他们还被酝酿一举就把国家的问题解决掉。

A root cause of Sudan’s terrible civil conflicts has been the concentration of wealth and power in the centre at the expense of the regions: the south and also Darfur, where a full-scale rebellion erupted in 2003. It was hoped that the elections, which are being held at local, state and federal level, would make the rulers more responsive to the needs and wishes of the ruled. But this is not a prospect that particularly appeals to the two parties that have ruled Sudan since 2005, the NCP in the north and the SPLM in the semi-autonomous south.
一种导致了苏丹恐怖的国内冲突的根源，便是财富和权力向中央集中，并以损害这些地区的利益作为代价：南部及达尔富尔，2003年爆发了全面的暴动。人们希望由地方、州和联邦政府举行的选举，将使得统治者对人民的需求和愿望更加负责任。但是，特别是对自从2005年以来统治苏丹的两党、北方的国家选举委员会和处于半自治状态的南方的SPLM来说，这种呼吁都毫无指望。

Mr Bashir and his NCP, who seized power from Sudan’s last democratically elected government in a coup in 1989, have for the past ten years been concerned mainly with enjoying the country’s oil wealth. This has come courtesy of the Chinese, who buy most of it. Unsurprisingly, the Sudanese leaders are determined by one means or another to remain in control.
巴希尔和其曾在1989年的政变中把权力从苏丹上次的民主选举选出来的政府手中抢过来的国家选举委员会，过去的十年中，关心的主要就是享受该国的石油财富。中国人一片好意买了大部分石油，便导致了这样的结果。这样也好，那样也罢，怎样能够保持对石油的控制，苏丹的领导者们便会做出怎样的决定，这丝毫不出人意料。

The SPLM, for its part, is focused on an entirely different election: the referendum on southern secession that was promised as part of the CPA. This is due to take place in the south next January. Should most southerners vote for independence, as they are expected to, Africa could have its first new state for almost 20 years—ruled by the SPLM.
对南方人民解放运动SPLM来说，心思完全放在这次不同寻常的选举上：南部公民投票的退出，是《全面和平协定》CPA所作的一部分承诺。这是由于明年1月南部将发生的事：假如大多数南方人正如别人预料的那样投票表决要求独立，非洲将会有了几乎20年来的第一个新国度——由SPLM统治的。

Determined to get to the referendum without upset, the SPLM has been accused throughout the election of suppressing any opposition to its rule. Its leader, Salva Kiir, is contesting only the presidency of south Sudan, thus demonstrating that his party is now bent entirely on consolidating its position in its own backyard.
决意没有骚乱地达成公民投票，SPLM曾经在选举期间自始至终被指责镇压任何其执政的反对党。其领导人萨尔瓦基尔（Salva Kiir），只是在角逐南部苏丹的总统职位，并以此证明他的政党现在完全把决心放在巩固其在自己邻近地区的阵地上。

Yet even though the election may be a charade, it could have positive results. If Mr Bashir gets his way at the vote, he may be more inclined to let the south leave Sudan peacefully. This event will profoundly change the map of east Africa. It may even alter the politics of north Sudan in ways that, for now, are hard to imagine.
然而即便选举也许会是次伪装，也能够有积极的结果。假如巴希尔在投票中能够得到他想到的方式，他也许会更倾向于让南部和平地离开（北部）苏丹。这次事件将会给东部非洲的版图带来深刻的变化。这甚至会把北部苏丹的政权改变成一种现在难以想象的方式。

It is also true that despite the government’s restrictions on opposition campaigning, the Sudanese have been able to speak openly about political matters for the first time in years. The sight of opposition politicians on television, even for just 20 minutes, denouncing Mr Bashir for corruption and misgovernment has been a revelation. Now there is hunger for more discussion and more politics.
尽管政府限制反对党运动，但苏丹人已经能够就有关政治话题公开地讲话，这是数年来的第一次，这也是千真万确的。电视中出现的反对党政治家们的画面，甚至长达20分钟，揭发巴希尔的腐败、指责其暴露出来的治国无方。而现在急需更多的讨论、更多的政见。

This week, at an evening rally in Khartoum for the Islamist Popular Congress Party, a lawyer in a flowing jellabiya repeatedly denounced Mr Bashir as a liar, accusing him of being a hypocrite and a stooge of the CIA. This sort of talk in public was unthinkable only a few months ago. Young men hovered at the back of the open-air site, unsure whether to sit down and join in the new politics or lurk safely in the dark, as they are used to.
本周，在喀土穆为伊斯兰民众国会党（the Islamist Popular Congress Party）举行的一次夜晚集会上，一位身着松垂的阿拉伯长袍（jellabiya）的律师重复地宣称巴希尔是个说谎者，指责他是个伪君子而且还是CIA的小丑。仅仅是在几个月前，这种公开的言论还无法想像。年轻人在户外集会地点的后面徘徊，拿不定主意到底是坐下来还是加入新的政治活动中、抑或只是潜伏在黑暗里，就如同他们曾经做过的那样。

At several opposition rallies, the economy has been discussed. So far as Mr Bashir has a political platform, he is running on his economic record. All his campaign posters picture him smiling in front of some new development project: the (Chinese-built) Merowe dam, the latest (part Chinese) oil refinery or a new (Chinese-built) road, all the benefits of Mr Bashir’s rule. But the Umma party argues that the country’s oil bonanza has benefited very few Sudanese, and most of those are in the areas north of Khartoum, where most of the NCP leaders are from. Despite all the oil, the vast majority of Sudanese have no easy access to schools or health care.
在一些反对派的集会上，曾经讨论过经济。只要巴希尔有一个政治平台，他就会连连刷新他在经济方面创下的纪录。他的所有的选举海报上的照片，都是站在一些新发展的项目前面微笑：（由中国承建的）麦罗维水坝，最近的（一部分是中国承建的）炼油厂或一条新修的（由中国承建的）公路，所有这些都是巴希尔执政期间的政绩。但是乌玛党争辩道，只有极少数苏丹人从该国极大的石油储备中受益，而石油储备大多集中在喀土穆以北地区，此处便是大多数NCP领导者们的故乡。尽管有那么多石油，广大苏丹人民上学或看病还是相当困难。

The campaign has helped opposition parties to reconnect with their supporters, relearning the art of politics and discussing the state of the country openly for the first time in a generation. Nobody knows exactly where this will lead, but the fact that the government is obviously worried tells its own story. For many, particularly, the young, it is heady stuff.
运动曾经帮助反对派政党再度与其支持者们取得联系，重新学习政治艺术并且公开讨论该国的州的问题，这是这一代人首次这么做。没有人能确切地知道这会引向何处，但是以前政府明显地担心的事实是不言而喻的。这对很多人、特别是年轻人来说是令人兴奋的。

Darfur may also have benefited from the elections, albeit obliquely. Mr Bashir knows that the western region contains the second-biggest number of voters after the south, so he has had to make some peace moves there in the past few months to shore up his support. A peace deal negotiated with neighbouring Chad is holding, and Mr Bashir has also signed a preliminary ceasefire agreement with two Darfuri rebel groups. These deals have provided some much-needed momentum to the meandering Darfur peace talks that are being held in Qatar. The level of violence has also declined slightly.
达尔富尔也可能从选举中受益，尽管是间接的。巴希尔知道，西部地区是包含仅次于南部地区的第二大选民数量的地区，所以在过去的几个月里他得在那儿进行一些和平运动，用以支撑起他的支持率。巴希尔与邻近的乍得正在进行有关和平处理的谈判，还和两个达尔富尔反叛群体签署了一份初步的停火协议。这些处理，也为在卡塔尔举行的曲折的达尔富尔和平谈话提供了一些非常需要的动力。暴力的程度也已经缓缓减轻。

None of this may outlast the election. There were reports this week that government forces had already clashed with one of the two Darfuri groups that signed the deal. The main rebel group, the Sudanese Liberation Army, led by Abdul Wahid al-Nur, still refuses to enter into any talks with the government.
这些事情持续的时间都没有选举长。本周，报道中称，政府力量已经与两个签署了协议的达尔富尔群体的其中一个发生冲突。主要的反叛群体，由阿卜杜勒瓦希德努尔（Abdul Wahid al-Nur）领导的苏丹人民解放军（the Sudanese Liberation Army），仍然拒绝与政府的任何对话。

And Darfur remains the world’s worst humanitarian disaster. Although fewer people are now being killed, fighting continues and more than 3m people are stuck in refugee camps, either in Darfur itself or in eastern Chad. As a result, about 4m Darfuris still rely on food aid from the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP). Few refugees in the camps bothered to register for a vote, fearing that this would prejudice their right to return to their real homes. Whatever happens at the election, the distressed region still awaits a political settlement that the Darfuris themselves feel they are part of.
而且，达尔富尔残留着世界上最恶劣的人道主义灾难。尽管现在很少有人被杀死，搏杀却仍在继续，300多万人被迫进入了达尔富尔自己的或东部的乍得的难民营。结果，大约400万达尔富尔人仍然依靠联合国的世界粮食计划署(WFP)的援助过活。难民营的避难者中，鲜有人去操心注册投票的事情，害怕这个会损害他们返回自己真正的家园的权利。不管在选举期间发生了什么，这个贫苦的地区仍然期待达尔富尔人感觉到自己能成为其一部分的政治安定。

Southern fear
南部的担忧

Attention will soon switch to the south and its referendum. Few African heads of state want to endorse the break-up of Sudan, for fear that it would encourage similar secessionist movements elsewhere. Nonetheless, some African leaders have now publicly accepted the obvious: they may not like secession but, if it is done amicably, there is nothing to stop it.
关注不久就会切换到南部和其公民投票。极少数非洲国家首领支持苏丹解体，因为害怕假如解体，苏丹将会到处鼓励类似的分裂主义运动。虽然如此，一些非洲领导人现在已经公开接受了显而易见的事实：他们可能不喜欢分裂，但是假如温和地进行分裂，就无法阻挡。

However, just as the election has focused attention on the failings of the NCP, so the SPLM will attract scrutiny once the debate turns to the south. There is mounting concern about the misgovernment of the south and fear about its future vulnerability as a state. After five years of SPLM rule, too many health and social indicators are slipping backwards. According to the WFP, for instance, the number of malnourished people in the south has now crept up to 47% of the population. That is an ominous statistic for a freshly minted African country. As ever with Sudan, optimism and pessimism go hand in hand.
然而，正像选举已经聚集于NCP的弱点上，当辩论转到南部的时候，SPLM也将引起仔细审查。对南部的治国无方的关心、对其作为一个国家未来的弱点的害怕正在增加。在SPLM统治了五年之后，相当多的卫生和社会指数都在倒退。举例来说，根据世界粮食计划署的统计，南部地区营养不良的人数现在已经攀升到了整个人口的47%。对一个刚刚成立的非洲国家，这可不是好兆头。在苏丹，乐观和悲观永远并存。