气候变化可在动荡地区引发战争

THE Matterhorn, an iconic emblem of the Alps, has two peaks: one on its Swiss side and one on its Italian side. Between them, the boundary separating the two countries traces the mountain ridge until it reaches the glacier at its base. According to a convention agreed long ago between Switzerland and Italy, the ridge of the glacier marks the border between the two countries. But the glacier is now receding, so a draft agreement has been proposed to create a new border that coincides with the ridge of the underlying rock.
阿尔卑斯山的象征——马特峰有两个峰顶：一个在瑞士，另一个在意大利。其间便是两国边境线，它顺着山脊一直蔓延到山脚的冰川。根据瑞意两国多年前的协议，冰川边界标志着两国边界。然而，如今的冰川正一点点退去，因此一份协议草案摆了上来，提出以地下岩石山脊为新界限。

The proposed change to this particular international border is unlikely to result in war. As the world warms up, however, more and more countries will need to renegotiate their boundaries. Your correspondent is concerned that a peaceful outcome is by no means assured.
就此特定国际边界提出的更改并不太可能导致战争，然而，随着世界变暖的步伐前行，越来越多的国家需重新协商边境划分。记者担心，未来和平受到了威胁。更多信息请访问：http://www.24en.com/

AFP/Times of India
An Indian soldier on the Indo-China border 中印边境上的印度士兵

Indeed, two recent reports from the Centre for Naval Analysis, an American military-research institute, suggest that border-related conflicts are a growing threat. In its report on “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change”, published in 2007, it warns that “Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world.”
事实上，美国海军分析中心（美国军事研究机构）最近的两份报告指出，围绕边境线的冲突正越来越威胁着我们。在其2007年发布的《国家安全和气候变化威胁》中，它警告道：“在全世界动荡最严重的地区，气候变化可能成为影响当地局势稳定的威胁之一。”

Nowhere is this truer than along the disputed sections of India’s border with Pakistan and China. India and Pakistan have been locked in occasionally violent competition for control of Kashmir since their bloody partition in 1947. James Lee of the American University in Washington, DC, reckons “it is a very good bet that the Kashmir glaciers will get caught up in the India/Pakistan dispute.”
印度的边境线上有着最真实的例子，该国与中国和巴基斯坦接壤的部分仍在争夺中。自1947年印度和巴基斯坦为喀什米尔的分割发生流血冲突后，两国仍不时为控制该地区而暴力竞争。美国大学华盛顿特区分校的詹姆士（James Lee）认为：“喀什米尔冰川极有可能被卷入印巴间的争夺。”

India’s border with China is also unresolved. The two countries fought a brief war over it in 1962. In early June, India signalled that it would boost its military presence close to the border. China responded on June 9th, when the Chinese Global Times published an editorial entitled “India’s Unwise Military Moves” denouncing India’s troop deployment.
印度与中国的边境问题也未得到解决，两国曾在1962年对此开展过为时较短的一战。六月初，印度表明要加强边境附近的军事力量。六月九日，中国通过在《环球日报》上发表评论员文章来回应，题目用“印度不明智的军事行动”指责了印度此次军队部署。

At the same time, the melting of sea ice around the north pole is causing old rivalries to heat up over conflicting claims to what could be valuable stretches of seabed that are becoming accessible as a result. The same report from the Centre for Naval Analysis warns that “an Arctic with less sea ice could bring more competition for resources, as well as more commercial and military activity.” And at the other end of the world Chile and Argentina, which last had an armed standoff in 1978, have yet to agree formally on a borderline through the southern Patagonian ice fields, which will affect their overlapping seabed claims.
与此同时，北极附近海域的融冰重新点燃了早年的竞争：价值连城的海底离我们越来越近，各国竞相声称对此拥有主权。美国军事分析中心的同一篇报告警告人们：“海冰逐年减少的北极地带将会引致更多的资源争夺以及商业和军事活动。”在地球的另一端，智利和阿根廷曾于1978年发生过武装对峙，迄今两方已正式签订边界线条约，约定在南巴塔哥尼亚的冰原上划分边界，有关两国交叠的海床的声明也会受到影响。

Rising sea levels will also eat away at all coastal communities, especially large, densely populated portions of many South and South-East Asian countries as well as tiny island nations in the South Pacific. In Bangladesh, where about 10% of the country is less than a metre above sea level, tens of millions could be displaced by global warming. India has already constructed a 4,100 kilometre (2,560 mile) fence along the border in an attempt to curb illegal immigration.
持续上升的海平面还将侵蚀所有沿海地区，尤其在南亚和东南亚国家，以及南太平洋的微型岛国上，规模庞大，人口密度也大的社群很受牵连。孟加拉共和国约10%的领土都在海拔一米以下，在这里，数以千万的人们会因为全球变暖而流离失所。印度沿着边境线建造了4100公里（2560英里）长的围墙，以防非法移民入境。

As the Centre for Naval Analysis states in its most recent report, “Powering America’s Defence”, which was published in May, “climate change could increasingly drive military missions in this century.” Many of these missions could involve environmental refugees fleeing marginal cropland, the productivity of which is likely to be reduced by global warming. It is worth noting that the report also found the American border to be at risk.
海军分析中心五月发表的最新报告叫《美国国防强化报告》，其中写道：“气候变化将越来越多地引发本世纪军事行动。”其中很多和难民有关，由于全球变暖，近岸水生的农田生产力下降，难民受环境影响，被迫离开农田。值得注意的是，报告同时发现，美国边界亦岌岌可危。