亚洲安全合作：消失的地平线

THE term “Shangri-La Dialogue” has a heady, Utopian ring to it. But the debate at an annual Asian-security summit held between June 4th and 6th in the Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore had a sobering undertone. The sinking in March of a South Korean naval ship has focused minds on a bellicose, nuclear-armed North Korea, though it denies responsibility for the attack. Tensions are also rising over sovereignty and navigation rights in the contested South China Sea. Armies in the region need to talk more and avoid misunderstandings. Defence chiefs at the forum, organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think-tank, could agree on that much. But they found it tricky to agree on much else.

“香格里拉”令人陶醉，虚无飘渺，赋予“香格里拉对话”这个词几分乌托邦似的理想化。“香格里拉对话”是在新加坡香格里拉大酒店召开的年度亚洲安全峰会，然而6月4日至6日的讨论却基于严峻的现实。5月的韩国军舰沉没事件使与会者们专注于朝鲜，一个拥有核武的好战国家，尽管其否认与攻击有关。在有争议的南中国海地区，关于主权与航海权的紧张局势也在进一步升级。该区域中的军队需要更多对话以避免误解。出席论坛的防务长官们非常赞成这个观点，该论坛由总部位于伦敦在的智库国际战略研究所组织。但要达成更多共识仍很困难。

The forum saw a public display of the chill in China-America military ties. America remains the dominant military power in the Pacific as it has been ever since the second world war. But China, which has the world’s largest standing army, is beefing up its naval and air capability, unnerving America and its allies in the region.

论坛领会了中美军事关系中公开展示的寒冷。自二战起，美国就在太平洋地区保持着主导地位的军事力量。但拥有最多现役部队的中国，正在加强其海空军作战能力，这使美国及其在该地区的盟友们感到不安。

Inevitably, this causes friction. America’s defence secretary, Robert Gates, had expected to visit China before the Singapore summit, but his invitation from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) never came. The apparent reason was Chinese pique over American weapons sales to Taiwan. But that, Mr Gates complained, is “old news”, and a silly reason to break off ties between the two armed forces.

不可避免地，这会引起摩擦。美国国防部长罗伯特•盖茨在新加坡峰会前，原希望访问中国，但遭中国人民解放军拒绝。原因不言而喻是中国对美国向台湾出售武器的气愤。但盖茨先生抱怨说，那是“旧闻”了，为此断绝两军交往是荒唐的。

This prompted a rebuttal from a PLA delegate in the audience. General Zhu Chenghu, a hawkish strategist at the National Defence University in Beijing, growled that the sale of arms to Taiwan suggested Americans were “taking the Chinese as the enemy.” As for the uproar over the sunken South Korean ship, the Cheonan, General Zhu asked why America was not seeking a full international investigation into Israel’s assault this month on a Turkish aid flotilla to Gaza. Mr Gates replied evenly that a stealth torpedo attack was quite different from enforcing a coastal blockade.

这遭到了一位在座解放军代表的反驳。朱成虎，一位北京的国防科技大学鹰派战略家，咆哮到，向台湾出售武器就表明美国人将中国人视为敌人。提及韩国沉没军舰天安号引发的骚动，朱将军反问到，美国为何不寻求对本月以色列进攻土耳其援助加沙船队的事件的全面国际调查。盖茨先生镇静地回答到，秘密鱼雷攻击与加强海岸封锁是两回事。

An international investigation into the Cheonan incident blamed North Korea, but conspiracy theorists still come up with other culprits. China, meanwhile, has itself suffered at the hands of its erratic neighbour. This week it made a formal complaint to North Korea after three Chinese citizens were shot dead near the border that divides the two countries.

天安号事件的国际调查报告将责任归于朝鲜，而共谋论者仍然在寻找其他犯人。同时，中国自己也在忍受着她古怪的邻居。本周，三名中国公民在两国边界附近被枪杀之后，中国正式谴责了朝鲜。

In his speech, General Ma Xiaotian, the head of the PLA delegation, insisted that it is America, not China, that puts obstacles in the way of improved military ties. He shook hands with Mr Gates but there were no bilateral powwows, as in past years.

在他的演讲中，马晓天将军，解放军代表团团长，强调，是美国，而非中国，在改善两军关系的道路上设置障碍。他与盖茨先生握了手，但未如以往一样进行双边磋商。

The broader message behind this point-scoring may have been that the West needs China’s help in calming North Korea and in other trouble spots (such as Myanmar), and that such help comes at a price, even where it appears to be in China’s own self-interest. Chinese diplomats have become more assertive since the West fell prey to financial crisis. Phillip Saunders, of the National Defence University in Washington, says the same goes for PLA strategists, who reckon they now have greater power to unsettle America. So the ice over military ties may not thaw as easily as in previous cold snaps. The risk is that an unexpected incident could escalate as the hot line goes unanswered.

在这争斗的背后，更广泛的涵义也许是西方需要中国的帮助，以便平定朝鲜和其它动荡地区(如缅甸)，并且这些帮助是需要付出代价的，也许甚至中国的自身利益。中国的外交家们在西方遭受金融危机之后更加自信了。华盛顿的国防大学的桑德斯，说，解放军的战略家们也一样，他们认为自己有更大的力量使美国不安。所以军队关系上的坚冰不会如以前寒流中的那样容易融化。而这一切的风险在于，当热线无人应答时，一个意外事件可能逐步升级。

Both Mr Gates and General Ma referred to the South China Sea, a vital shipping lane and home to the Paracel and Spratly Islands, which several littoral countries claim as their own and which are believed to sit atop sizeable oil and gas deposits. China’s rapid naval build-up has stirred fears among neighbours of a future territorial grab. For its part, China resents American spy planes and ships that operate near its coastline, including between Taiwan and Japan. China’s officials have begun describing the South China Sea as one of its “core interests”, on a par with Taiwan and Tibet. It has stepped up military exercises from its naval base on Hainan.

盖茨先生和马将军都提及了南中国海，一条至关重要的大洋航线，西沙群岛和南沙群岛的家，许多沿海国家宣称对这两处群岛拥有主权，而且这两处群岛极可能位于相当大的油气矿床之上。中国快速的海军建设引起了邻居们对其未来攫取领土的担心。在这方面，中国厌恶在其海岸线附近，包括台湾和日本之间活动的美国间谍飞机和船只。中国官方已经将南中国海描述为与台湾和西藏一样的“核心利益”。她加强了在海南海军基地的军事演习。

That is worrying for Vietnam, which has sparred with China over undersea drilling by Western oil companies. In 2008 China reportedly browbeat ExxonMobil and BP into stopping exploration in Vietnamese waters. In a dig at China, Mr Gates said American firms should not be blocked from “legitimate economic activity”.

那正是越南担忧的，她与中国就西方石油公司的海下钻井争吵不休。在2008年据说中国恫吓埃克森美孚和英国石油，要求其停止在中越争议水域的探测。在挖苦中国时，盖茨先生说美国公司的合法经济活动不应该被阻止。更多信息请访问：http://www.24en.com/

Vietnam would like the ten-member Association of South-East Asian Nations, whose rotating chairmanship it holds, to stick together on the South China Sea issue, lest China pick off the weaker members. Vietnam’s defence chief told the forum that he hoped that maritime disputes could be resolved with “good-neighbourliness, friendship, co-operation and brotherhood”. But as in regional security co-operation as a whole, there is little sign of such homilies translating into genuinely constructive dialogue.

越南作为拥有十个成员的东南亚联盟的轮职主席，希望东南亚联盟在南中国海问题上团结一致，以免中国剪除其较弱的成员。越南国防部长告诉论坛，他希望大家带着睦邻友好，友谊，合作和兄弟情谊去解决海洋争端。但就区域内安全合作总体情况来说，几乎没有迹象表明这样的谆谆教导会变为真诚地建设性对话。